Table 7.
Scenario analysis*.
| Base scenario | Base scenario | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5 | Scenario 6 | Scenario 7 | Scenario 8 | Scenario 9 | Scenario 10 | Scenario 11 | Scenario 12 | |
| Hospital level | Tertiary hospital | Tertiary hospital | Tertiary hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital | Community hospital |
| Distance | Within the city | Within the city | Within the city | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district | Within the county/district |
| Care provider | Attending physician | Attending physician | Attending physician | Resident | Resident | Resident | Attending physician | Attending physician | Attending physician | Attending physician | Attending physician | Attending physician |
| Waiting time | 3 days | 3 days | 3 days | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait | No need to wait |
| Cost (CNY) | 600 | 900 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
| Medical insurance reimbursement | 60% | 60% | 40% | 60% | 80% | 100% | 60% | 80% | 100% | 60% | 80% | 100% |
| Preference | 84.4% | 80.5% | 71.20% | 67.8% | 76.7% | 78.8% | 64.9% | 75.2% | 77.5% | 66.1% | 75.5% | 77.5% |
Since our fundamental purpose is to provide policy makers with advice on how to allocate medical resources reasonably, it is necessary to consider the actual situation of China 's current medical policy. Considering the adjustability of medical policy and the impact of each attribute described above on the choice of respondents, this study mainly simulates the changes in the proportion of medical insurance reimbursement in the scenario of chronic non-infectious diseases. The reason why chronic non-infectious diseases scenario was chosen is that the biggest challenge facing the full implementation of Hierarchical Medical Treatment System in China is how to drain patients with chronic non-infectious diseases from tertiary hospitals to community hospitals. The ultimate goal is to make patients who really need high-level medical services get timely treatment. The reason for choosing the medical insurance reimbursement as the main research object is on the one hand because of its dominant position in preference analysis, and on the other hand because of its adjustability. By contrast, the inflexibility of the attributes of “distance” and “waiting time” makes them insufficient to provide a theoretical basis for policy adjustments. Moreover, “Care provider” and “Cost” have little impact on respondents' choices.