Table 2.
Standardized coefficients (95% confidence intervals) from the ARIMA model of the associations between the independent variables [purchases of no-alcohol product (ml), low-alcohol product, regular strength product (ml) and ABV of all purchased regular strength product], and the dependent variable, purchase of all grams of alcohol within the product
| Standardized coefficient (95% confidence intervals) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Beer | Wine | Spirits |
| Great Britain, 2015–2019 | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | −0.0048 (−0.0088 to −0.0008) | 0.0284 (0.0161–0.0408) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1370 (0.1330–0.1410) | 0.1557 (0.1397–0.1716) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0031 (0.9989–1.0073) | 0.8773 (0.8595–0.8951) | 0.9731 (0.9610–0.9851) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0685 (0.0644–0.0726) | 0.0836 (0.0645–0.1027) | 0.0311 (0.0206–0.0415) |
| Great Britain, 2017–2019 (sensitivity analysis) | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | 0.0309 (0.0104–0.0515) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1591 (0.1532–0.1650) | 0.1248 (0.1045–0.1451) | 0.0155 (0.0078–0.0232) |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9950 (0.9890–1.0010) | 0.9337 (0.9115–0.9560) | 0.9904 (0.9823–0.9985) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0697 (0.0636–0.0757) | 0.0694 (0.0931–0.0456) | 0.0240 (0.0160–0.0320) |
| Great Britain, 2015 (sensitivity analysis) | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | −0.0395 (−0.0587 to −0.0202) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | 0.1388 (0.1113–0.1663) | 0.0350 (0.0164–0.0537) |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9950 (0.9794–1.0106) | 0.7774 (0.7402–0.8146) | 0.9335 (0.9070–0.9601) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0909 (0.0746–0.1072) | 0.0658 (0.0360–0.0955) | 0.0575 (0.0351–0.0798) |
| Great Britain, 2016 (sensitivity analysis) | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1002 (0.0906–0.1097) | 0.1825 (0.1362–0.2289) | 0.0378 (0.0076–0.0681) |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0061 (0.9961–1.0160) | 0.8566 (0.8086–0.9045) | 0.9560 (0.9257–0.9862) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0594 (0.0494–0.0695) | 0.0843 (0.0374–0.1312) | |
| Great Britain, 2017 (sensitivity analysis) | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1702 (0.1496–0.1909) | Excluded from model | 0.0427 (0.0142–0.0713) |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9714 (0.9505–0.9924) | 0.8832 (0.8367–0.9298) | 0.9734 (0.9451–1.0016) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | Excluded from model | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Great Britain, 2018 (sensitivity analysis) | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | 0.1729 (0.1308–0.2150) | 0.0398 (0.0117–0.0680) |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9998 (0.9793–1.0204) | 0.9156 (0.8728–0.9585) | 0.9516 (0.9225–0.9807) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0872 (0.0667–0.1077) | 0.0574 (0.0287–0.0861) | |
| Great Britain, 2019 (sensitivity analysis) | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | −0.0336 (−0.0657 to −0.0014) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | 0.1351 (0.1023–0.1679) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0101 (0.9888–1.0314) | 0.9251 (0.8908–0.9594) | 0.9604 (0.9341–0.9868) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0980 (0.0767–0.1193) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Scotland | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | 0.0066 (0.0022–0.0109) | −0.0235 (−0.0410 to −0.0060) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.3108 (0.3062–0.3154) | 0.1421 (0.1228–0.1614) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0132 (1.0081–1.0182) | 0.9063 (0.8887–0.9239) | 0.9798 (0.9693–0.9902) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0085 (0.0061–0.0109) | 0.0638 (0.0468–0.0809) | 0.0417 (0.0329–0.0505) |
| North East | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | −0.0069 (−0.0126 to −0.0013) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1658 (0.1602–0.1713) | 0.1182 (0.0999–0.1365) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9869 (0.9810–0.9929) | 0.9181 (0.9005–0.9357) | 0.9892 (0.9772–1.0012) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0187 (0.0151–0.0224) | 0.0680 (0.0512–0.0848) | 0.0181 (0.0130–0.0233) |
| North West | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | −0.0101 (−0.0157 to −0.0046) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1744 (0.1688–0.1799) | 0.1878 (0.1682–0.2075) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9951 (0.9891–1.0010) | 0.9024 (0.8829–0.9219) | 0.9584 (0.9458–0.9710) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0272 (0.0234–0.0310) | 0.0529 (0.0334–0.0723) | 0.0379 (0.0255–0.0503) |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | −0.0102 (−0.0151 to −0.0052) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.3019 (0.2970–0.3069) | 0.2349 (0.2148–0.2549) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9746 (0.9693–0.9800) | 0.8667 (0.8464–0.8871) | 0.9563 (0.9429–0.9698) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0322 (0.0284–0.0360) | 0.0693 (0.0486–0.0900) | 0.0392 (0.0280–0.0504) |
| East Midlands | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | −0.0045 (−0.0087 to −0.0003) | 0.0396 (0.0237 to 0.0555) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1308 (0.1256–0.1360) | 0.1247 (0.1084–0.1410) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0046 (0.9991–1.0100) | 0.9329 (0.9163–0.9495) | 0.9617 (0.9481–0.9753) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0215 (0.0179–0.0250) | 0.0374 (0.0212–0.0536) | 0.0174 (0.0071–0.0276) |
| West Midlands | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | −0.0081 (−0.0139 to −0.0023) | 0.0257 (0.0075–0.0439) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1803 (0.1746–0.1860) | 0.2728 (0.2556–0.2899) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9914 (0.9852–0.9975) | 0.9091 (0.8918–0.9263) | 0.9783 (0.9678–0.9888) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0201 (0.0165–0.0237) | 0.0489 (0.0331–0.0647) | 0.0383 (0.0295–0.0472) |
| Wales | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | 0.0074 (0.0021–0.0127) | 0.0299 (0.0101–0.0497) | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1241 (0.1188–0.1295) | 0.1513 (0.1313–0.1713) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0033 (0.9974–1.0092) | 0.9082 (0.8881–0.9283) | 0.9790 (0.9688–0.9892) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0173 (0.0146–0.0201) | 0.0763 (0.0591–0.0936) | 0.0023 (0.0009–0.0037) |
| Eastern | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1039 (0.0986–0.1091) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0028 (0.9975–1.0081) | 0.9119 (0.8928–0.9310) | 0.9557 (0.9420–0.9694) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0430 (0.0390–0.0470) | 0.0296 (0.0109–0.0483) | 0.0225 (0.0106–0.0344) |
| London | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.0989 (0.0925–0.1054) | 0.1094 (0.0948–0.1241) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0075 (1.0005–1.0144) | 0.9551 (0.9402–0.9700) | 0.9735 (0.9615–0.9855) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0208 (0.0172–0.0244) | 0.0528 (0.0377–0.0680) | 0.0074 (0.0011–0.0136) |
| South East | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | 0.0076 (0.0021–0.0131) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.1312 (0.1257–0.1367) | 0.1660 (0.1476–0.1845) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 0.9910 (0.9853–0.9967) | 0.9066 (0.8883–0.9249) | 0.9657 (0.9536–0.9777) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0634 (0.0583–0.0684) | 0.0463 (0.0274–0.0652) | 0.0275 (0.0176–0.0374) |
| South West | |||
| Zero alcohol product (volume) | 0.0075 (0.0025–0.0125) | Excluded from model | Excluded from model |
| Low-alcohol product (volume) | 0.0857 (0.0807–0.0907) | 0.1777 (0.1605–0.1949) | Excluded from model |
| Regular product (volume) | 1.0086 (1.0033–1.0139) | 0.8902 (0.8734–0.9070) | 0.9747 (0.9631–0.9862) |
| ABV (%) of regular product | 0.0259 (0.0224–0.0294) | 0.0434 (0.0275–0.0594) | 0.0304 (0.0222–0.0386) |
All analyses undertaken separately for beer within beer-purchasing households, wine within wine-purchasing households, and spirits within spirits-purchasing households. [NB, the ARIMA model excludes predictors with a probability value ≥0.05]