. 2020 May 6;2(3):100070. doi: 10.1016/j.ocarto.2020.100070

Table 2.

Estimated number of people who could avoid knee replacement in 2019–2029.

Year	Population with moderate-severe knee OA^a	Usual care	Non-surgical management program
Year	Population with moderate-severe knee OA^a	Number estimated to receive TKR	Number estimated to receive TKR^b	Number estimated to avoid TKR^c
2019	56,007	56,007	17,922	38,085
2020	57,248	57,248	18,319	38,928
2021	58,481	58,481	18,714	39,767
2022	59,702	59,702	19,105	40,597
2023	60,956	60,956	19,506	41,450
2024	62,263	62,263	19,924	42,339
2025	63,594	63,594	20,350	43,244
2026	64,998	64,998	20,799	44,199
2027	66,382	66,382	21,242	45,140
2028	67,730	67,730	21,674	46,056
2029	69,038	69,038	22,092	46,946

Who are likely to require TKR (based on 9.45% of the population with knee OA).

32% of the population with moderate-severe knee OA, based on 2-year RCT outcomes [31].

68% of the population with moderate-severe knee OA, based on 2-year RCT outcomes [31].