Table 2.

Model summary statistics.

	Data			Model
	Mean	Autocorr	Stdev	Mean	Autocorr	Stdev
	(A) Percentage change in life expectancy
Overall population	0.21	-0.08	0.31	$\underset{[0.19,0.22]}{0.21}$	$\underset{[0.51,0.76]}{0.66}$	$\underset{[0.16,0.23]}{0.19}$
African-American	0.34	0.32	0.46	$\underset{[0.31,0.36]}{0.33}$	$\underset{[0.66,0.85]}{0.78}$	$\underset{[0.25,0.38]}{0.31}$
African-American (M)	0.39	0.50	0.52	$\underset{[0.36,0.41]}{0.38}$	$\underset{[0.71,0.86]}{0.80}$	$\underset{[0.32,0.46]}{0.38}$
African-American (W)	0.28	0.25	0.39	$\underset{[0.25,0.30]}{0.27}$	$\underset{[0.64,0.83]}{0.76}$	$\underset{[0.21,0.33]}{0.27}$
White	0.18	-0.05	0.26	$\underset{[0.16,0.19]}{0.18}$	$\underset{[0.51,0.76]}{0.65}$	$\underset{[0.15,0.23]}{0.19}$
White (M)	0.20	0.07	0.28	$\underset{[0.18,0.21]}{0.20}$	$\underset{[0.57,0.79]}{0.70}$	$\underset{[0.17,0.24]}{0.20}$
White (W)	0.15	-0.08	0.25	$\underset{[0.14,0.17]}{0.15}$	$\underset{[0.48,0.75]}{0.63}$	$\underset{[0.15,0.21]}{0.18}$
	(B) Percentage change in the age-adjusted death rate
Overall population	-1.02	-0.20	1.77	$\underset{[-1.03,-0.96]}{-1.00}$	$\underset{[0.39,0.73]}{0.59}$	$\underset{[0.75,1.03]}{0.87}$
African-American	-1.23	0.04	2.07	$\underset{[-1.29,-1.16]}{-1.23}$	$\underset{[0.54,0.79]}{0.70}$	$\underset{[1.09,1.48]}{1.27}$
African-American (M)	-1.29	0.12	2.09	$\underset{[-1.36,-1.23]}{-1.29}$	$\underset{[0.64,0.83]}{0.76}$	$\underset{[1.19,1.55]}{1.36}$
African-American (W)	-1.14	-0.01	2.21	$\underset{[-1.19,-1.06]}{-1.12}$	$\underset{[0.58,0.81]}{0.72}$	$\underset{[1.07,1.46]}{1.25}$
White	-0.89	-0.16	1.68	$\underset{[-0.96,-0.88]}{-0.92}$	$\underset{[0.49,0.76]}{0.65}$	$\underset{[0.78,1.03]}{0.89}$
White (M)	-0.89	-0.09	1.67	$\underset{[-0.96,-0.88]}{-0.92}$	$\underset{[0.57,0.80]}{0.71}$	$\underset{[0.84,1.07]}{0.95}$
White (W)	-0.87	-0.17	1.80	$\underset{[-0.93,-0.85]}{-0.89}$	$\underset{[0.54,0.79]}{0.69}$	$\underset{[0.83,1.08]}{0.94}$
	(C) Unemployment rate
Overall population	5.82	0.77	1.62	$\underset{}{5.82}$	$\underset{}{0.77}$	$\underset{}{1.62}$
African-American	12.08	0.81	2.91	$\underset{}{12.08}$	$\underset{}{0.81}$	$\underset{}{2.91}$
African-American (M)	10.94	0.76	3.06	$\underset{}{10.94}$	$\underset{}{0.76}$	$\underset{}{3.06}$
African-American (W)	10.23	0.83	2.41	$\underset{}{10.23}$	$\underset{}{0.83}$	$\underset{}{2.41}$
White	5.26	0.76	1.40	$\underset{}{5.26}$	$\underset{}{0.76}$	$\underset{}{1.40}$
White (M)	4.51	0.77	1.56	$\underset{}{4.51}$	$\underset{}{0.77}$	$\underset{}{1.56}$
White (W)	4.79	0.77	1.14	$\underset{}{4.79}$	$\underset{}{0.77}$	$\underset{}{1.14}$

Notes: We provide the sample moments (mean, autocorrelation at first lag, and standard deviation) of the three series used in the estimation: the growth rate of the average life expectancy (panel A), the growth rate of the age-adjusted death rate (panel B), and the unemployment rate (panel C) for the overall US population and for distinct groups identified based on race and gender. We compare with those computed from the smoothed estimates (without measurement errors) of our model. The data span from 1950 to 2017 for the overall population; from 1954 to 2017 for white workers; and from 1972 to 2017 for African-American workers.