Table 3.

Fraction of forecast error variance explained by unemployment shock (%).

	(1) Percentage change in life expectancy
	5 years	10 years	15 years	20 years
Overall population	$\underset{[0.27,28.24]}{8.33}$	$\underset{[0.64,38.81]}{12.99}$	$\underset{[0.72,38.75]}{13.31}$	$\underset{[0.73,39.04]}{13.36}$
African-American	$\underset{[2.79,39.16]}{17.62}$	$\underset{[5.57,46.57]}{23.98}$	$\underset{[5.79,45.98]}{23.95}$	$\underset{[5.79,46.03]}{24.02}$
African-American (M)	$\underset{[7.89,58.38]}{34.43}$	$\underset{[14.05,62.21]}{39.00}$	$\underset{[14.14,61.39]}{38.63}$	$\underset{[14.25,61.48]}{38.49}$
African-American (W)	$\underset{[0.91,34.20]}{12.51}$	$\underset{[2.49,46.04]}{20.70}$	$\underset{[2.96,44.81]}{20.84}$	$\underset{[3.03,45.23]}{21.12}$
White	$\underset{[0.19,30.31]}{7.04}$	$\underset{[0.44,40.22]}{11.04}$	$\underset{[0.49,40.24]}{11.37}$	$\underset{[0.50,40.69]}{11.44}$
White (M)	$\underset{[0.17,31.83]}{8.15}$	$\underset{[0.43,45.19]}{14.03}$	$\underset{[0.52,46.27]}{14.89}$	$\underset{[0.53,46.58]}{15.02}$
White (W)	$\underset{[0.17,28.76]}{6.65}$	$\underset{[0.42,39.07]}{10.85}$	$\underset{[0.47,39.71]}{11.19}$	$\underset{[0.49,40.03]}{11.22}$
	(2) Percentage change in the age-adjusted death rate
	5 years	10 years	15 years	20 years
Overall population	$\underset{[0.56,24.69]}{8.80}$	$\underset{[0.97,28.75]}{10.73}$	$\underset{[1.07,28.97]}{10.89}$	$\underset{[1.09,29.08]}{10.93}$
African-American	$\underset{[10.86,44.00]}{25.88}$	$\underset{[12.76,44.59]}{26.53}$	$\underset{[12.84,44.36]}{26.75}$	$\underset{[12.85,44.46]}{26.78}$
African-American (M)	$\underset{[5.16,46.45]}{24.42}$	$\underset{[8.05,49.90]}{28.37}$	$\underset{[8.43,49.82]}{28.65}$	$\underset{[8.47,50.15]}{28.82}$
African-American (W)	$\underset{[6.11,42.08]}{22.42}$	$\underset{[10.22,45.68]}{26.09}$	$\underset{[10.52,44.46]}{26.18}$	$\underset{[10.67,44.99]}{26.33}$
White	$\underset{[1.06,31.58]}{12.76}$	$\underset{[1.76,35.92]}{15.31}$	$\underset{[1.86,36.06]}{15.50}$	$\underset{[1.86,36.22]}{15.55}$
White (M)	$\underset{[0.28,27.55]}{8.90}$	$\underset{[0.70,36.54]}{13.34}$	$\underset{[0.82,37.71]}{13.83}$	$\underset{[0.86,37.98]}{13.92}$
White (W)	$\underset{[0.93,32.70]}{12.72}$	$\underset{[1.52,38.86]}{16.20}$	$\underset{[1.66,39.02]}{16.47}$	$\underset{[1.69,39.30]}{16.50}$

Notes: The table provides the fraction of forecast error variance of the percentage change in life expectancy and the age-adjusted mortality rate explained by unemployment shock at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. We present the median values and provide the values that correspond to the 90% bands in brackets.