. 2022 Dec 5;146:104581. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104581

Table 4.

Cumulative changes of age-adjusted death rates for the leading causes of deaths over different horizons following a 1% unemployment shock.

	(1) Percentage change
	5 years	10 years	15 years	20 years
Accidents	$\underset{[1.96, 4.36]}{3.10}$	$\underset{[3.75, 10.19]}{6.24}$	$\underset{[3.26, 12.24]}{5.93}$	$\underset{[3.12, 11.81]}{5.06}$
Cancer	$\underset{[- 0.72, 0.51]}{- 0.10}$	$\underset{[- 1.74, 1.29]}{- 0.25}$	$\underset{[- 2.46, 1.95]}{- 0.33}$	$\underset{[- 2.92, 2.51]}{- 0.37}$
Heart disease	$\underset{[- 0.07, 1.36]}{0.62}$	$\underset{[- 0.17, 3.21]}{1.38}$	$\underset{[- 0.23, 4.30]}{1.66}$	$\underset{[- 0.27, 4.72]}{1.71}$
Influenza and pneumonia	$\underset{[0.52, 3.18]}{1.84}$	$\underset{[1.36, 8.19]}{4.50}$	$\underset{[1.87, 11.55]}{5.65}$	$\underset{[2.13, 13.36]}{5.79}$
Stroke	$\underset{[0.51, 2.63]}{1.56}$	$\underset{[1.20, 6.86]}{3.56}$	$\underset{[1.52, 9.48]}{4.28}$	$\underset{[1.63, 10.99]}{4.36}$

	(2) Change
	5 years	10 years	15 years	20 years

Accidents	$\underset{[0.94, 2.09]}{1.49}$	$\underset{[1.80, 4.89]}{3.00}$	$\underset{[1.57, 5.87]}{2.85}$	$\underset{[1.50, 5.67]}{2.43}$
Cancer	$\underset{[- 1.07, 0.76]}{- 0.15}$	$\underset{[- 2.60, 1.93]}{- 0.37}$	$\underset{[- 3.66, 2.91]}{- 0.49}$	$\underset{[- 4.36, 3.74]}{- 0.55}$
Heart disease	$\underset{[- 0.12, 2.23]}{1.01}$	$\underset{[- 0.28, 5.25]}{2.25}$	$\underset{[- 0.38, 7.03]}{2.72}$	$\underset{[- 0.44, 7.73]}{2.80}$
Influenza and pneumonia	$\underset{[0.08, 0.47]}{0.27}$	$\underset{[0.20, 1.22]}{0.67}$	$\underset{[0.28, 1.72]}{0.84}$	$\underset{[0.32, 1.99]}{0.86}$
Stroke	$\underset{[0.19, 0.98]}{0.58}$	$\underset{[0.44, 2.55]}{1.32}$	$\underset{[0.56, 3.52]}{1.59}$	$\underset{[0.60, 4.08]}{1.62}$

Notes: We multiply the predicted change at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years provided in Panel (1) of Table 4 with the most recent age-adjusted death rates of the leading causes of deaths in 2018. The age-adjusted death rates (deaths per 100,000 U.S. standard population) for the 10 leading causes of death in the most recent year 2018 are: (1) Heart disease, 163.6; (2) Cancer, 149.1; (3) Accidents, 48.0; (4) Chronic lower respiratory disease, 39.7; (5) Stroke, 37.1; (6) Alzheimer disease, 30.5; (7) Diabetes, 21.4; (8) Kidney disease, 12.9; (9) Influenza and pneumonia 14.9; and (10) Suicide, 14.2.