Table C.1.

The role of measurement error variances.

	50%	[5%,	95%]
$\Delta$ avg. life expectancy	0.19	[0.05,	0.85]
$\Delta$ age-adj. death rate	0.19	[0.06,	0.78]

Notes: We simulate ${\{{\beta }^j,{\Sigma }^j\}}_{j=1}^N$ based on (B.4) and (C.1) and ${\{{\sigma }_1^j,{\sigma }_2^j\}}_{j=1}^N$ based on (B.8) and (C.1). We then compute the unconditional variance of (B.3) and of $y_t-M{y}_{t-1}$ (which includes the measurement errors and the VAR). The table reports the quantiles of the fraction of variance explained by the VAR.