Table F.1.

Fraction of forecast error variance explained by unemployment shock (%).

	(1) Percentage change in life expectancy
	5 years	10 years	15 years	20 years
Overall population	$\underset{[1.30,31.45]}{10.46}$	$\underset{[2.10,40.74]}{15.68}$	$\underset{[2.22,40.99]}{16.11}$	$\underset{[2.21,41.23]}{16.15}$
African-American	$\underset{[4.33,43.64]}{19.78}$	$\underset{[8.68,58.40]}{32.28}$	$\underset{[9.01,58.75]}{32.74}$	$\underset{[9.07,59.01]}{32.97}$
African-American (M)	$\underset{[7.95,59.80]}{33.60}$	$\underset{[14.83,68.26]}{43.65}$	$\underset{[15.02,68.17]}{43.58}$	$\underset{[14.85,68.40]}{43.64}$
African-American (W)	$\underset{[2.33,37.04]}{14.50}$	$\underset{[4.66,52.43]}{25.78}$	$\underset{[5.33,52.80]}{26.49}$	$\underset{[5.43,53.53]}{26.73}$
White	$\underset{[0.86,29.70]}{8.32}$	$\underset{[1.46,40.13]}{12.72}$	$\underset{[1.53,40.85]}{13.21}$	$\underset{[1.56,41.30]}{13.33}$
White (M)	$\underset{[0.86,32.18]}{9.60}$	$\underset{[1.39,45.40]}{15.09}$	$\underset{[1.46,46.15]}{16.02}$	$\underset{[1.47,46.51]}{16.18}$
White (W)	$\underset{[0.68,28.96]}{7.72}$	$\underset{[1.15,38.92]}{12.13}$	$\underset{[1.29,39.66]}{12.53}$	$\underset{[1.31,39.96]}{12.57}$
	(2) Percentage change in the age-adjusted death rate
	5 years	10 years	15 years	20 years
Overall population	$\underset{[1.85,29.03]}{11.67}$	$\underset{[2.55,32.24]}{14.00}$	$\underset{[2.67,32.88]}{14.15}$	$\underset{[2.70,33.08]}{14.20}$
African-American	$\underset{[14.19,55.69]}{34.39}$	$\underset{[19.48,61.00]}{40.11}$	$\underset{[19.52,61.39]}{40.38}$	$\underset{[19.66,61.68]}{40.67}$
African-American (M)	$\underset{[6.55,49.69]}{26.25}$	$\underset{[10.04,56.71]}{33.31}$	$\underset{[10.74,57.25]}{33.56}$	$\underset{[10.74,57.54]}{33.75}$
African-American (W)	$\underset{[7.43,46.07]}{25.62}$	$\underset{[13.18,54.43]}{32.70}$	$\underset{[13.42,53.98]}{32.80}$	$\underset{[13.64,54.47]}{32.91}$
White	$\underset{[2.39,32.72]}{13.93}$	$\underset{[3.23,37.47]}{17.41}$	$\underset{[3.38,37.91]}{17.58}$	$\underset{[3.43,38.13]}{17.65}$
White (M)	$\underset{[1.37,29.99]}{10.57}$	$\underset{[2.03,38.28]}{15.25}$	$\underset{[2.21,39.15]}{15.73}$	$\underset{[2.23,39.40]}{15.85}$
White (W)	$\underset{[1.90,32.24]}{13.02}$	$\underset{[2.80,38.75]}{17.19}$	$\underset{[2.87,39.07]}{17.52}$	$\underset{[2.91,39.55]}{17.61}$

Notes: The table provides the fraction of forecast error variance of the percentage change in life expectancy and the age-adjusted mortality rate explained by unemployment shock at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. We present the median values and provide the values that correspond to the 90% bands in brackets.