Table 3.
Top ten cumulative number of interventions for a variant with R0 = 6 and incubation period of 2 days, altering the timing of social distancing (phases II, III, IV) and timeliness of quarantine based on the Guangzhou parameters.
| Top 10 | Timing (T) of social distancing (days after symptom onset of the first case) | Quarantine (tc): timeliness of quarantine (day) | (T, tc) | Outbreak size | Ending time point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 11 | I: 0.88; II: − 0.26; III: − 1.8; IV: − 4.75 | (0, 0) | 708 (95%CI: 704–712) | 26 days |
| 1 | 8 | I: − 2.12; II: − 3.26; III: − 4.8; IV: − 7.75 | (− 3, − 3) | 5 (95%CI: 3–7) | 0 days |
| 2 | 8 | I: − 1.12; II: − 2.26; III: − 3.8; IV: − 6.75 | (− 3, − 2) | 14 (95%CI:12–16) | 12 days |
| 3 | 9 | I: − 2.12; II: − 3.26; III: − 4.8; IV: − 7.75 | (− 2, − 3) | 25 (95%CI:23–27) | 15 days |
| 4 | 8 | I: − 0.12; II: − 1.26; III: − 2.8; IV: − 5.75 | (− 3, − 1) | 25 (95%CI:22–28) | 15 days |
| 5 | 8 | I: 0.88; II: − 0.26; III: − 1.8; IV: − 4.75 | (− 3, 0) | 32 (95CI:29–35) | 16 days |
| 6 | 8 | I: 1.88; II: 0.74; III: − 0.8; IV: − 3.75 | (− 3, 1) | 38 (95CI:34–42) | 17 days |
| 7 | 8 | I:2.88; II: 1.74; III: 0.2; IV: − 2.75 | (− 3, 2) | 43 (95%CI:40–48) | 17 days |
| 8 | 10 | I: − 2.12; II: − 3.26; III: − 4.8; IV: − 7.75 | (− 1, − 3) | 43 (95%CI:37– 46) | 20 days |
| 9 | 8 | I: 3.88; II: 2.74; III: 1.2; IV: − 1.75 | (− 3, 3) | 47 (95%CI:46–48) | 18 days |
| 10 | 9 | I: − 1.12; II: − 2.26; III: − 3.8; IV: − 6.75 | (− 2, − 2) | 63 (95%CI:57–68) | 20 days |