TABLE 2.

Cumulative rates of events during follow‐up

Months	N	EBD rate (95% CI)	N	Surgery rate (95% CI)	N	Intervention rate (95% CI)	N	Obstructive rate (95% CI)
Entire cohort
0	86	0 (0,0)	86	0 (0,0)	86	0 (0,0)	45	0 (0,0)
6	69	0.04 (0.01,0.1)	71	0.17 (0.11,0.27)	69	0.2 (0.13,0.3)	40	0.09 (0.03,0.22)
12	60	0.09 (0.05,0.19)	65	0.23 (0.16,0.34)	60	0.29 (0.2,0.4)	35	0.2 (0.11,0.35)
18	54	0.13 (0.07,0.23)	61	0.26 (0.18,0.36)	54	0.34 (0.25,0.45)	31	0.27 (0.16,0.43)
24	52	0.13 (0.07,0.23)	57	0.29 (0.21,0.4)	52	0.35 (0.26,0.46)	28	0.32 (0.2,0.48)
36	44	0.21 (0.13,0.34)	53	0.31 (0.22,0.42)	44	0.42 (0.33,0.54)	24	0.39 (0.27,0.55)
48	32	0.27 (0.17,0.4)	40	0.36 (0.27,0.47)	32	0.50 (0.39,0.61)	18	0.47 (0.33,0.63)
Derivation cohort
0	58	0 (0, 0)	58	0 (0, 0)	58	0 (0, 0)	35	0 (0, 0)
6	48	0.02 (0, 0.12)	49	0.16 (0.08, 0.28)	48	0.17 (0.1, 0.3)	32	0.06 (0.01, 0.21)
12	42	0.08 (0.03, 0.2)	45	0.21 (0.12, 0.34)	42	0.26 (0.16, 0.39)	27	0.21 (0.1, 0.38)
18	36	0.13 (0.06, 0.27)	41	0.24 (0.15, 0.38)	36	0.33 (0.23, 0.47)	23	0.29 (0.17, 0.48)
24	34	0.13 (0.06, 0.27)	39	0.26 (0.17, 0.4)	34	0.35 (0.24, 0.49)	20	0.36 (0.22, 0.54)
36	31	0.18 (0.09, 0.33)	37	0.26 (0.17, 0.4)	31	0.39 (0.28, 0.53)	17	0.42 (0.27, 0.61)
48	26	0.23 (0.13, 0.4)	31	0.32 (0.22, 0.47)	26	0.45 (0.33, 0.59)	14	0.49 (0.33, 0.67)
Validation cohort
0	28	0 (0, 0)	28	0 (0, 0)	28	0 (0, 0)	10	0 (0, 0)
6	21	0.07 (0.02, 0.26)	22	0.21 (0.1, 0.42)	21	0.25 (0.13, 0.45)	8	0.2 (0.05, 0.59)
12	18	0.12 (0.04, 0.33)	20	0.29 (0.15, 0.49)	18	0.36 (0.21, 0.56)	8	0.2 (0.05, 0.59)
18	18	0.12 (0.04, 0.33)	20	0.29 (0.15, 0.49)	18	0.36 (0.21, 0.56)	8	0.2 (0.05, 0.59)
24	18	0.12 (0.04, 0.33)	18	0.36 (0.21, 0.56)	18	0.36 (0.21, 0.56)	8	0.2 (0.05, 0.59)
36	13	0.28 (0.14, 0.53)	16	0.39 (0.24, 0.6)	13	0.51 (0.34, 0.7)	7	0.3 (0.11, 0.67)
48	6	0.34 (0.17, 0.59)	9	0.44 (0.28, 0.64)	6	0.59 (0.41, 0.78)	4	0.4 (0.17, 0.75)

Abbreviations: CI, Confidence interval; EBD, Endoscopic balloon dilation.