Table 3.
Parameters used in the modeling of monkeypox transmission (assumed).
| Parameter | Definition | Value (range) | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic related | |||
| p HRG | Proportion of the population that is in the HRG | 0.035 | Assumed |
| N p | The total number of populations in the hypothetical city | 5,000,000 | Assumed |
| Transmission related | |||
| 1/γQ | Average number of days of recovery needed for isolated individuals, days | 28 | Assumed |
| 1/γv | Average number of days of recovery needed for exposed individuals vaccinated and quarantined, days | 21 | Assumed |
| ξ1 | Scaling factor of infectiousness of infected in the prodromal phase compared to infections with rash symptoms | 0.75 | Assumed |
| ξ2 | Scaling factor of susceptibility of LRG individuals compared to HRG individuals | 0.03 | Assumed |
| β | Probability of transmission per contact among HRG | (0.122, 0.245) | Assumed |
| k 1 | Proportion of contacts within the LRG in overall contacts | 0.6 | Assumed |
| k 2 | Scaling factor of contact rate among HRG compared to baseline contact | 1.3 | Assumed |
| Vaccine related | |||
| ϵ1 | The effectiveness of first dose of Imvamune against monkeypox infection | 40% (40–60%) | Assumed |
| ϵ2 | The effectiveness of second dose of Imvamune against monkeypox infection | 80% (70–85%) | Assumed |
| Public health control measures related | |||
| 1/λ | The average time to achieve the vaccination coverage in HRG, days | 40 (30–90) | Assumed |
| p v | The vaccination coverage in HRG | 0.6 (0.1–0.9) | Assumed |
| θ1 | The vaccination proportion of individuals in LRG who are the close contact with the confirmed cases | 0.35 (0.1–0.6) | Assumed |
| θ2 | The vaccination proportion of individuals in HRG who are the close contact with the confirmed cases | 0.6 (0.3–0.8) | Assumed |
| r LH | The daily transition rate of the low-risk susceptible individuals to the high-risk, 1/days | 0.0005 (0.0001–0.001) | Assumed |
| c G | Number of effective contacts during the gathering, persons | 30 (10–50) | Assumed |
| p t1 | Proportion of symptomatic individuals in LRG who has been tested and isolated | 0.3 (0.1–0.5) | Assumed |
| p t2 | Proportion of symptomatic individuals in HRG who has been tested and isolated | 0.5 (0.3–0.7) | Assumed |
| α | Proportion of individuals who comply with the isolation strategy | 0.4 (0.3–0.6) | Assumed |