Table 4.
Parameters used in the modeling of monkeypox transmission (from literature).
| Parameter | Definition | Value (range) | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic related | |||
| p 50+ | The proportion of individuals who were born before 1972 and has been fully vaccinated to the total populations | 38.4% | (25) |
| Transmission related | |||
| τ | Average incubation period of MPX, days | 13 | (8) |
| δ | Average number of days from prodromal phase to acute phase, days | 3 | (8) |
| μ | Daily disease induced death rate, 1/days | 3.6%/21 | (7) |
| 1/γ | Average number of days of recovery needed for infectious individuals with rash symptoms, days | 21 | (8) |
| c 0 | Baseline contact rate among the overall population, per day | 10.8 | (26) |
| Vaccine related | |||
| 1/ζ1 | The time from the first dose administered to the immune response start, days | 14 | (11) |
| 1/ζ2 | The time from the immune response started after first dose to immune response peak after second dose, days | 56 | (11) |
| Gathering event related | |||
| T 1 | The starting time of the gathering event | Jul. 20, 2022 | (27) |
| T 2 | The end time of the gathering event | Aug. 1, 2022 | (27) |
| Public health control measures related | |||
| T v | The starting time of the vaccination strategy conducted | June 10, 2022 | (28) |
| 1/η | The average time of the close contact of confirmed cases from the exposed to be traced and then vaccinated, days | 7 (1–14) | (11) |
| 1/ρ | The average days from when infected individuals develop symptoms to seek medical help and then get tested, days | 7 (1–13) | (29) |