Table 6.
Lists of settings of scenarios to projections of monkeypox infection.
| Scenarios | Settings |
|---|---|
| Scenario 1 | Gathering events and no public health (PH) control measures are conducted. • 10, 000 daily attendees, R0 = 1.5 (Baseline). • 10, 000 daily attendees, R0 = 3. • 100,000 daily attendees, R0 = 3. |
| Scenario 2 | Gathering events (no interventions on the attendees) with 100,000 daily attendees, 10, 30 or 50 effective contacts in the gathering and R0 = 3. • With testing, isolation, and PEPCT strategy, but without PrEPH. • With testing, isolation, and PrEPH (90% HRG received 1 dose vaccine as of July 20), but without PEPCT strategy. |
| Scenario 3 | Gathering events with 100,000 daily attendees (fully vaccinated), 10, 30 or 50 effective contacts in the gathering and R0 = 3. • With testing, isolation, and PrEPH (60% HRG received 1 dose vaccine as of Jul 20) and PEPCT strategy. • With testing, isolation, and PrEPH (90% HRG received 1 dose vaccine as of Jul 20), testing and isolation, but without PEPCT strategy. |
| Scenario 4 | Gathering events (no interventions on the attendees) with 100,000 daily attendees, and R0 = 3. With testing, isolation, and without PEPCT strategy, and other settings. |
| Scenario 5 | Gathering events (no interventions on the attendees) with 100,000 daily attendees, 50 effective contacts in the gathering and R0 = 3. With testing, isolation, vaccinating 30% close contact of confirmed cases in LRG, and other settings. |
| Some general setting and descriptions | |
| Gathering event | Starting from July 20 to August 1, 2022. |
| No PH control measures | No interventions on monkeypox transmission, like testing, isolation, tracing or vaccination. |
| R0 = 1.5 or 3 | The probability of per contact among HRG is 12.2 % or 24.5%. |
| Testing, isolation | The testing and isolation strategy are implemented and the testing proportion of symptomatic infection in HRG and LRG is 50% and 30% respectively. |
| PEPCT strategy | Vaccinating the 60% close contact of confirmed cases in HRG and 30% close contact of confirmed cases in LRG. |
| Other settings | The time from individuals developing symptoms, to seeking medical help and then being tested and isolated is 7 days, and the time for tracing and vaccinating the close contacts of confirmed cases is 7 days, the daily transition rate from LRG to HRG during the gathering is 0.0005, and the proportion of individuals adhering to the isolation strategy is 40%, and the 10% of attendees is LRG individuals. |