Table 4.
Factors associated with transitions from severe COVID-19 (age- and sex-adjusted model).
| Hazard Ratios (95% Confidence Intervals) of Transition |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From state 5 (severe disease – high-flow O2-therapy or NIV), to |
From state 6 (severe disease – intubation/organ support/ICU), to |
|||||||||||
| State 1 | State 2 | State 3 | State 4 | State 6 | State 7 | State 1 | State 2 | State 3 | State 4 | State 5 | State 7 | |
| Age (years) | 0.97 (0.94–1.00) | 0.99 (0.95–1.03) | 0.94 (0.90–0.98) | 0.91 (0.85–0.97) | 0.94 (0.89–1.00) | 1.09 (1.06–1.11) | 1.01 (0.93–1.09) | 0.98 (0.86–1.11) | 1.01 (0.87–1.16) | 0.94 (0.84–1.06) | 1.13 (0.88–1.45) | 1.05 (0.99–1.12) |
| Sex (F vs M) | 1.70 (0.96–3.01) | 0.81 (0.39–1.68) | 1.08 (0.50–2.32) | 1.04 (0.36–2.97) | 0.63 (0.22–1.84) | 0.56 (0.38–0.82) | 1.98 (0.64–6.09) | 0.59 (0.07–4.97) | 0.02 (0–882.3) | 1.37 (0.30–6.22) | – | 0.23 (0.05–1.07) |
| Not walk independently | 0.49 (0.23–1.07) | 1.28 (0.56–2.92) | 0.26 (0.06–1.14) | 2.47 (0.82–7.45) | – | 1.90 (1.25–2.89) | – | – | – | – | – | 3.17 (0.66–15.1) |
| Lives at home autonomous | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] |
| Lives at home with assistance | 0.39 (0.14–1.09) | 0.74 (0.25–2.20) | 0.62 (0.18–2.10) | 1.76 (0.48–6.49) | 0.32 (0.04–2.42) | 2.60 (1.63–4.16) | 0.34 (0.04–2.81) | – | – | 4.05 (0.21–77.2) | – | 6.18 (0.97–39.3) |
| Lives in NH | 0.88 (0.36–2.14) | 1.08 (0.33–3.51) | 0.34 (0.04–2.65) | 1.23 (0.15–10.1) | – | 1.86 (1.03–3.34) | – | – | – | – | – | 12.27 (0.91–166.2) |
| Smoking habit (never) | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] | [ref] |
| Former | 0.71 (0.34–1.48) | 1.04 (0.46–2.35) | 1.20 (0.46–3.14) | 1.11 (0.32–3.84) | 1.14 (0.27–4.83) | 0.91 (0.53–1.55) | 1.47 (0.29–7.45) | 5.01 (0.31–81.9) | – | 1.26 (0.17–9.46) | – | 0.72 (0.18–2.89) |
| Current | – | 0.76 (0.10–5.83) | 1.18 (0.15–9.37) | – | 9.69 (2.47–38.1) | 1.14 (0.35–3.74) | 4.05 (1.03–15.9) | – | – | – | – | 0.39 (0.05–3.14) |
| N. chronic diseases | 0.94 (0.84–1.05) | 1.07 (0.93–1.22) | 1.04 (0.89–1.22) | 0.85 (0.67–1.09) | 1.04 (0.85–1.28) | 1.10 (1.03–1.18) | 1.15 (0.90–1.46) | 0.85 (0.52–1.38) | 0.66 (0.33–1.36) | 1.20 (0.82–1.78) | 1.68 (0.48–5.84) | 0.93 (0.74–1.16) |
| Obesity | 1.19 (0.64–2.21) | 0.47 (0.14–1.55) | 1.25 (0.41–3.82) | 2.74 (1.07–7.01) | 0.28 (0.07–1.18) | 1.43 (0.91–2.25) | 1.35 (0.36–5.01) | – | 5.13 (0.94–28.0) | – | – | 1.94 (0.71–5.27) |
| CVD | 1.10 (0.65–1.85) | 1.28 (0.64–2.55) | 1.66 (0.78–3.51) | 0.42 (0.14–1.22) | 1.20 (0.47–3.07) | 1.19 (0.81–1.75) | 0.91 (0.30–2.72) | 1.95 (0.23–17.0) | – | 3.22 (0.38–26.9) | – | 0.72 (0.27–1.90) |
| CKD | 0.38 (0.09–1.59) | 2.08 (0.84–5.20) | 1.61 (0.47–5.58) | 1.11 (0.14–9.09) | – | 1.36 (0.85–2.20) | 1.67 (0.18–15.2) | – | – | – | – | – |
| Respiratory diseases | 1.20 (0.59–2.46) | 2.01 (0.84–4.80) | 0.36 (0.04–3.07) | 1.67 (0.54–5.23) | 1.11 (0.46–2.69) | 0.86 (0.51–1.45) | 1.87 (0.59–5.98) | – | – | – | – | 1.28 (0.42–3.88) |
| Cognitive disorders | 1.20 (0.49–2.94) | 0.54 (0.12–2.38) | – | 2.64 (0.58–12.0) | – | 1.32 (0.81–2.15) | 0.74 (0.09–6.36) | – | – | – | – | 1.14 (0.13–9.90) |
| Depressive mood | 0.86 (0.41–1.77) | 1.81 (0.83–3.94) | 0.65 (0.20–2.14) | 1.35 (0.38–4.79) | – | 1.04 (0.65–1.68) | 2.87 (0.37–22.3) | – | – | 5.40 (0.62–46.8) | – | – |
| Fevera | 5.17 (1.23–21.7) | 1.88 (0.57–6.19) | 1.70 (0.52–5.54) | 0.61 (0.17–2.21) | 0.48 (0.17–1.36) | 0.68 (0.44–1.05) | 0.72 (0.17–3.08) | 0.60 (0.04–8.11) | – | 0.84 (0.08–9.42) | – | 1.99 (0.39–10.33) |
| Deliriuma | 0.89 (0.38–2.13) | 0.62 (0.14–2.69) | 0.89 (0.27–3.00) | 0.79 (0.10–6.15) | – | 1.10 (0.68–1.76) | 0.41 (0.05–3.33) | – | 4.15 (0.25–70.2) | – | – | 1.38 (0.36–5.31) |
| Wave II vs I | 2.79 (1.56–4.97) | 0.49 (0.12–2.03) | 0.77 (0.23–2.55) | 1.95 (0.63–6.00) | – | 0.67 (0.33–1.37) | 5.78 (0.66–50.9) | – | – | – | – | – |
Abbreviations: CVD, cardiovascular diseases; CKD, chronic kidney disease; NH, nursing home. Notes. State 1, hospital discharge with clinical improvement/stability; state 2, transfer to unspecified or low-intensity of care setting; state 3, mild disease – no O2-therapy; state 4, mild disease – low-flow O2-therapy; state 5, severe disease – high-flow O2-therapy or NIV; state 6, severe disease – intubation/organ support/ICU transfer; state 7, death.
a
Symptoms at ward admission.