TABLE 1.
Model parameters: baseline values, ranges, and distributions for sensitivity analysis.
| Variable | Baseline value | Range | Distribution | Reference | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | |||||
| Log-logistic OS survival model in sintilimab + chemotherapy group | Shape = 1.9216, scale = 17.2448 | ND | ND | — | ND | Model fitting |
| Log-logistic OS survival model in the chemotherapy group | Shape = 1.95315, scale = 12.30254 | ND | ND | — | ND | Model fitting |
| Log-logistic PFS survival model in the sintilimab + chemotherapy group | Shape = 2.16, scale = 5.67 | ND | ND | — | ND | Model fitting |
| Log-lnorm PFS survival model in the chemotherapy group | Meanlog = 2.19, sdlog = 0.903 | ND | ND | — | ND | Model fitting |
| Risk for main adverse events | ||||||
| Sintilimab + chemotherapy | ||||||
| Leukopenia | 0.17 | 0.136 | 0.204 | 0.034 | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Anemia | 0.13 | 0.104 | 0.156 | 0.026 | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Neutropenia | 0.3 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.06 | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Chemotherapy | ||||||
| Leukopenia | 0.07 | 0.056 | 0.084 | 0.014 | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Anemia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Neutropenia | 0.12 | 0.096 | 0.144 | 0.024 | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Health utility scores | ||||||
| Utility of PFS | 0.741 | 0.593 | 0.889 | 0.1482 | Beta | Lagergren et al. (2017) |
| Utility of PD | 0.581 | 0.465 | 0.697 | 0.1162 | Beta | Lagergren et al. (2017) |
| Cost, $/per cycle | ||||||
| Sintilimab | 301.78 | 241.424 | 362.136 | 60.356 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| Cisplatin | 15.644 | 12.5152 | 18.7728 | 3.1288 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| Paclitaxel | 103.814 | 83.0512 | 124.5768 | 20.7628 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| 5-Fluorouracil | 45.64 | 36.512 | 54.768 | 9.128 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| Laboratory test | 157.5 | 126 | 189 | 31.5 | Gamma | Rustgi and El-Serag, (2014) |
| Follow-up | 59.2 | 47.36 | 71.04 | 11.84 | Gamma | Uhlenhopp et al. (2020) |
| Administration | 69.81 | 55.848 | 83.772 | 13.962 | Gamma | Uhlenhopp et al. (2020) |
| Best supportive care | 117.1 | 32.3 | 322.6 | 23.42 | Gamma | Abnet et al. (2018) |
| Camrelizumab | 463.4377968 | 370.7502 | 556.125356 | 92.6875594 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| Anlotinib | 639.556 | 511.6448 | 767.4672 | 127.9112 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| Docetaxel | 100 | 80 | 120 | 20 | Gamma | Local quotes |
| Expenditures on main AEs, $ | ||||||
| Leukopenia | 466 | 373 | 559 | 93.2 | Gamma | Ilson and van Hillegersberg, (2018) |
| Anemia | 531 | 425 | 638 | 106.2 | Gamma | Ilson and van Hillegersberg, (2018) |
| Neutropenia | 354 | 283 | 425 | 70.8 | Gamma | Ilson and van Hillegersberg, (2018) |
| Disutility due to AEs | ||||||
| Leukopenia | -0.0897 | −0.07176 | −0.10764 | −0.01794 | Beta | Napier et al. (2014) |
| Anemia | -0.073 | −0.0876 | −0.0584 | −0.0146 | Beta | Napier et al. (2014) |
| Neutropenia | -0.0897 | −0.07176 | −0.10764 | −0.01794 | Beta | Napier et al. (2014) |
| Risk for subsequent therapy | ||||||
| Sintilimab + chemotherapy | ||||||
| Anti-PD-(L)1 agent | 0.34 | 0.272 | 0.408 | — | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Targeted drug therapy | 0.13 | 0.104 | 0.156 | — | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Chemotherapy | 0.12 | 0.096 | 0.144 | — | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Chemotherapy | ||||||
| Anti-PD-(L)1 agent | 0.29 | 0.232 | 0.348 | — | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Targeted drug therapy | 0.055 | 0.044 | 0.066 | — | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
| Chemotherapy | 0.055 | 0.044 | 0.066 | — | Beta | ORIENT-15 |
Abbreviations: PFS, progression-free survival; PD, progressive disease; SAE, severe adverse event.