Table 1.

Performance of the polygenic risk score, clinical and combined 10-year risks in the full dataset

Association	HR per quintile of risk	95% CI	P value
PRS 10-year risk	1.156	1.081–1.236	<0.001
Clinical 10-year risk	1.092	1.004–1.188	0.04
Combined 10-year risk	1.268	1.178–1.365	<0.001
Discrimination	Harrell’s C-index	95% CI
PRS 10-year risk	0.623	0.603–0.642
Clinical 10-year risk	0.622	0.603–0.641
Combined 10-year risk	0.647	0.628–0.666
Calibration	SIR	95% CI	P value*
PRS 10-year risk, overall	1.004	0.933–1.080	0.9
Quintile 1 (median = 0.19%)	0.877	0.653–1.101	0.3
Quintile 2 (median = 0.28%)	1.057	0.860–1.255	0.6
Quintile 3 (median = 0.36%)	1.047	0.874–1.220	0.6
Quintile 4 (median = 0.45%)	0.923	0.777–1.068	0.3
Quintile 5 (median = 0.61%)	1.049	0.918–1.179	0.5
Clinical 10-year risk, overall	0.970	0.901–1.044	0.4
Quintile 1 (median = 0.14%)	1.183	0.854–1.512	0.2
Quintile 2 (median = 0.23%)	1.118	0.862–1.374	0.3
Quintile 3 (median = 0.34%)	0.958	0.766–1.149	0.7
Quintile 4 (median = 0.46%)	1.124	0.958–1.291	0.1
Quintile 5 (median = 0.68%)	0.818	0.711–0.925	0.003
Combined 10-year risk, overall	0.960	0.892–1.033	0.3
Quintile 1 (median = 0.12%)	1.260	0.908–1.610	0.1
Quintile 2 (median = 0.21%)	0.936	0.694–1.178	0.6
Quintile 3 (median = 0.31%)	1.066	0.855–1.277	0.5
Quintile 4 (median = 0.45%)	1.057	0.899–1.214	0.5
Quintile 5 (median = 0.73%)	0.843	0.744–0.942	0.005

CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; PRS, polygenic risk score; SIR, standardised incidence ratio; SNP, single-nucleotide polymorphism. The SIR is the observed number of ovarian cancer cases divided by the number expected by the 10-year risk prediction scores.

^*P value for test that SIR = 1.