Table 2.
Trends in probability of premature deaths due to total and each subtype of CVDs in overall and sex−specific Chinese population aged 30 to 70 years, 2013 to 2018.
| Probability of premature death (95% CI), % | |||||||
| Population | In 2013 | In 2014 | In 2015 | In 2016 | In 2017 | In 2018 | APC (95% CI), % |
| Overall population | |||||||
| Total CVD | 9.05 (9.02, 9.09) | 8.79 (8.75, 8.82) | 8.58 (8.55, 8.62) | 8.42 (8.38, 8.45) | 8.28 (8.25, 8.32) | 8.13 (8.10, 8.16) | −2.10 (−2.42, −1.77) |
| Heart disease | 4.19 (4.17, 4.22) | 4.09 (4.07, 4.12) | 4.00 (3.98, 4.02) | 3.96 (3.94, 3.98) | 3.95 (3.93, 3.97) | 3.94 (3.92, 3.97) | −1.21 (−1.90, −0.52) |
| Ischemic heart disease | 3.51 (3.49, 3.54) | 3.48 (3.45, 3.50) | 3.45 (3.42, 3.47) | 3.46 (3.44, 3.48) | 3.47 (3.45, 3.49) | 3.48 (3.46, 3 .50) | −0.14 (−0.54, 0.26) |
| Hypertensive heart disease | 0.46 (0.45, 0.47) | 0.38 (0.37, 0.39) | 0.33 (0.33, 0.34) | 0.03 (0.30, 0.31) | 0.29 (0.28, 0.29) | 0.28 (0.27, 0.28) | −9.68 (−14.11, −5.25) |
| Rheumatic heart disease | 0.15 (0.15, 0.16) | 0.15 (0.15, 0.16) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.14) | 0.12 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.12 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | −6.78 (−9.45, −4.12) |
| Other heart disease | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.09 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.09 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | −2.02 (−6.93, 2.89) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 4.89 (4.86, 4.92) | 4.72 (4.69, 4.75) | 4.62 (4.59, 4.64) | 4.49 (4.47, 4.52) | 4.37 (4.35, 4.40) | 4.22 (4.19, 4.24) | −2.85 (−3.10, −2.60) |
| Hemorrhagic stroke | 2.88 (2.86, 2.91) | 2.77 (2.75, 2.79) | 2.65 (2.63, 2.67) | 2.51 (2.50, 2.53) | 2.40 (2.38, 2.42) | 2.25 (2.24, 2.27) | −4.91 (−5.43, −4.39) |
| Ischemic stroke | 1.16 (1.14,1.17) | 1.17 (1.16,1.19) | 1.16 (1.14,1.17) | 1.11 (1.10,1.13) | 1.08 (1.07,1.10) | 1.07 (1.06,1.08) | −1.97 (−3.02, −0.91) |
| Unspecific stroke | 0.18 (0.18, 0.19) | 0.16 (0.16, 0.17) | 0.15 (0.14, 0.15) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.14) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.12 (0.12, 0.13) | −7.77 (−8.76, −6.78) |
| Sequelae of stroke | 0.41 (0.40, 0.42) | 0.41 (0.40, 0.42) | 0.47 (0.46, 0.48) | 0.56 (0.55, 0.57) | 0.62 (0.61, 0.63) | 0.64 (0.63, 0.65) | 10.41 (6.95, 13.86) |
| Hypertensive encephalopathy | 0.20 (0.20, 0.21) | 0.17 (0.17, 0.18) | 0.16 (0.16, 0.17) | 0.15 (0.15, 0.16) | 0.12 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | −11.71 (−14.69, −8.73) |
| Other cerebrovascular disease | 0.12 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.09 (0.09, 0.09) | 0.08 (0.07, 0.08) | 0.08 (0.08, 0.09) | 0.08 (0.08, 0.08) | −8.04 (−12.97, −3.11) |
| Other CVD | 0.19 (0.19, 0.20) | 0.18 (0.18, 0.19) | 0.16 (0.16, 0.17) | 0.15 (0.15, 0.16) | 0.15 (0.14, 0.15) | 0.15 (0.14, 0.15) | −5.12 (−8.17, −2.08) |
| Males | |||||||
| Total CVD | 11.31 (11.25, 11.37) | 11.16 (11.1, 11.21) | 11.1 (11.05, 11.16) | 10.96 (10.91, 11.01) | 10.85 (10.8, 10.9) | 10.77 (10.72, 10.82) | −0.98 (−1.10, −0.85) |
| Heart disease | 5.27 (5.22, 5.31) | 5.23 (5.20, 5.27) | 5.22 (5.18, 5.26) | 5.19 (5.16, 5.23) | 5.21 (5.18, 5.25) | 5.30 (5.26, 5.33) | 0.03 (−0.54, 0.61) |
| Ischemic heart disease | 4.49 (4.45, 4.52) | 4.52 (4.49, 4.56) | 4.57 (4.54, 4.61) | 4.61 (4.57, 4.65) | 4.64 (4.6, 4.67) | 4.74 (4.70, 4.77) | 1.02 (0.74, 1.31) |
| Hypertensive heart disease | 0.56 (0.54, 0.57) | 0.47 (0.46, 0.49) | 0.42 (0.41, 0.43) | 0.38 (0.37, 0.39) | 0.37 (0.36, 0.38) | 0.36 (0.35, 0.37) | −8.65 (−12.62, −4.68) |
| Rheumatic heart disease | 0.13 (0.12, 0.14) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.14) | 0.12 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | −5.43 (−7.31, −3.55) |
| Other heart disease | 0.13 (0.13, 0.14) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.15) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.15) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.13 (0.13, 0.14) | −0.85 (−3.43, 1.74) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 6.15 (6.10, 6.19) | 6.04 (5.99, 6.08) | 6.01 (5.97, 6.06) | 5.89 (5.85, 5.93) | 5.76 (5.73, 5.80) | 5.59 (5.56, 5.63) | −1.83 (−2.36, −1.30) |
| Hemorrhagic stroke | 3.66 (3.63, 3.70) | 3.55 (3.52, 3.58) | 3.46 (3.42, 3.49) | 3.29 (3.26, 3.32) | 3.15 (3.12, 3.18) | 2.98 (2.96, 3.01) | −4.10 (−4.86, −3.35) |
| Ischemic stroke | 1.46 (1.43, 1.48) | 1.51 (1.49, 1.53) | 1.52 (1.50, 1.54) | 1.48 (1.46, 1.50) | 1.45 (1.43, 1.47) | 1.43 (1.41, 1.45) | −0.72 (−2.17, 0.73) |
| Unspecific stroke | 0.23 (0.22, 0.24) | 0.21 (0.20, 0.22) | 0.19 (0.19, 0.20) | 0.19 (0.18, 0.19) | 0.17 (0.16, 0.18) | 0.17 (0.16, 0.17) | −6.13 (−8.41, −3.85) |
| Sequelae of stroke | 0.52 (0.50, 0.53) | 0.53 (0.51, 0.54) | 0.62 (0.61, 0.64) | 0.74 (0.73, 0.76) | 0.83 (0.82, 0.85) | 0.87 (0.85, 0.88) | 11.70 (8.47, 14.93) |
| Hypertensive encephalopathy | 0.25 (0.24, 0.26) | 0.22 (0.22, 0.23) | 0.22 (0.21, 0.22) | 0.20 (0.19, 0.21) | 0.16 (0.15, 0.17) | 0.15 (0.14, 0.15) | −10.30 (−14.13, −6.47) |
| Other cerebrovascular disease | 0.15 (0.14, 0.15) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.11 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | −7.50 (−13.27, −1.73) |
| Other CVD | 0.24 (0.23, 0.25) | 0.23 (0.22, 0.24) | 0.21 (0.20, 0.21) | 0.20 (0.20, 0.21) | 0.19 (0.18, 0.20) | 0.20 (0.19, 0.21) | −4.38 (−7.19, −1.57) |
| Females | |||||||
| Total CVD | 6.44 (6.40, 6.49) | 6.14 (6.09, 6.18) | 5.93 (5.89, 5.98) | 5.75 (5.71, 5.79) | 5.58 (5.54, 5.62) | 5.31 (5.27, 5.35) | −3.66 (−4.10, −3.23) |
| Heart disease | 2.97 (2.94, 3.01) | 2.84 (2.81, 2.87) | 2.74 (2.71, 2.77) | 2.68 (2.65,2.71) | 2.64 (2.61, 2.66) | 2.52 (2.50, 2.55) | −3.04 (−3.71, −2.37) |
| Ischemic heart disease | 2.41 (2.38, 2.44) | 2.33 (2.30, 2.36) | 2.28 (2.25, 2.31) | 2.27 (2.25, 2.30) | 2.26 (2.23, 2.28) | 2.16 (2.14, 2.19) | −1.84 (−2.67, −1.00) |
| Hypertensive heart disease | 0.34 (0.33, 0.36) | 0.28 (0.27, 0.29) | 0.25 (0.24, 0.25) | 0.22 (0.21, 0.23) | 0.20 (0.20, 0.21) | 0.19 (0.18, 0.20) | −11.56 (−14.51, −8.61) |
| Rheumatic heart disease | 0.17 (0.17, 0.18) | 0.17 (0.17, 0.18) | 0.16 (0.15, 0.17) | 0.14 (0.13, 0.14) | 0.13 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.12 (0.11, 0.13) | −7.66 (−10.12, −5.19) |
| Other heart disease | 0.06 (0.06, 0.07) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.07) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.07) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | −1.32 (−5.62, 2.97) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 3.44 (3.41, 3.48) | 3.27 (3.23, 3.30) | 3.17 (3.14, 3.21) | 3.05 (3.02, 3.08) | 2.93 (2.90, 2.96) | 2.77 (2.74, 2.80) | −4.15 (−4.62, −3.67) |
| Hemorrhagic stroke | 2.01 (1.98, 2.03) | 1.91 (1.89, 1.94) | 1.83 (1.80, 1.85) | 1.72 (1.69, 1.74) | 1.62 (1.60, 1.65) | 1.49 (1.47, 1.51) | −5.87 (−6.76, −4.97) |
| Ischemic stroke | 0.82 (0.80, 0.84) | 0.80 (0.78, 0.82) | 0.79 (0.77, 0.80) | 0.74 (0.73, 0.76) | 0.71 (0.70, 0.73) | 0.70 (0.68, 0.71) | −3.47 (−4.47, −2.47) |
| Unspecific stroke | 0.13 (0.12, 0.14) | 0.11 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.09 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.08 (0.08, 0.09) | 0.08 (0.07, 0.08) | −9.97 (−13.03, −6.91) |
| Sequelae of stroke | 0.29 (0.28, 0.30) | 0.29 (0.28, 0.30) | 0.32 (0.31, 0.33) | 0.38 (0.37, 0.39) | 0.40 (0.39, 0.41) | 0.41 (0.40, 0.42) | 8.19 (4.96, 11.43) |
| Hypertensive encephalopathy | 0.15 (0.14, 0.16) | 0.11 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.12) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.08 (0.08, 0.09) | 0.07 (0.07, 0.07) | −13.89 (−18.80, −8.98) |
| Other cerebrovascular disease | 0.08 (0.08, 0.09) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.07) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.07) | 0.05 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.05 (0.05, 0.06) | −8.56 (−15.51, −1.60) |
| Other CVD | 0.14 (0.13, 0.15) | 0.13 (0.13, 0.14) | 0.12 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.10) | −7.58 (−11.38, −3.77) |
APC: Annual percentage change; CI: Confidence interval; CVD: Cardiovascular disease.