Table 3.

Mixed-effects negative binomial regression models of county-level COVID-19 fatality (periods 1 & 2)

	Period 1		Period 2
Factors	Model 1	Model 2	Model 1	Model 2
	IRR (95% CI)	IRR (95% CI)	IRR (95% CI)	IRR (95% CI)
Concentrated disadvantage	1.185(1.119,1.255) **	1.188(1.121, 1.258) **	1.156(1.117,1.197) **	1.166(1.126,1.206) **
Log (PC)	0.93(0.812,1.065)	0.908(0.791, 1.044)	0.878(0.812,0.951) **	0.852(0.786,0.923) **
Concentrated disadvantage * Log (PC)		1.142(0.958, 1.361)		1.267(1.141,1.406) **
Log (Spatially lagged fatality)	2.519(2.2,2.884) **	2.526(2.207, 2.892) **	2.799(2.467,3.176) **	2.795(2.464,3.169) **
Log (population density)	1.089(1.03,1.152) **	1.094(1.034, 1.157) **	1.026(0.992,1.06)	1.031(0.997,1.066)
% of population aged 65 +	1.039(1.033,1.046) **	1.039(1.033, 1.045) **	1.035(1.032,1.039) **	1.035(1.031,1.038) **
% of no health insurance	1(0.993,1.007)	1.000(0.993, 1.007)	1.008(1.004,1.013) **	1.008(1.004,1.012) **
% of black or African Americans	1.004(1.002,1.006) **	1.004(1.002, 1.006) **	1.002(1,1.003) **	1.002(1,1.003) *
% of workers 16 years and over who commute by public transportation	1.008(0.998,1.018)	1.008(0.998, 1.018)	1.005(0.999,1.011)	1.005(0.999,1.011)
ICU beds per 100,000 population	1(0.999,1.001)	1(0.999, 1.001)	1(1,1.001)	1(1,1.001)
CBSA (Non-CBSA)
Micro	0.963(0.9,1.03)	0.961(0.898, 1.028)	0.961(0.924,1) *	0.958(0.921,0.996) *
Metro	0.968(0.906,1.034)	0.965(0.903, 1.031)	0.95(0.914,0.987) **	0.946(0.91,0.983) **
Region (Northeast)
Midwest	0.616(0.511,0.742) **	0.614(0.510, 0.740) **	0.889(0.788,1.003)	0.884(0.784,0.997) *
South	0.644(0.539,0.769) **	0.645(0.540, 0.770) **	0.822(0.731,0.923) **	0.824(0.734,0.925) **
West	0.62(0.507,0.758) **	0.619(0.507, 0.757) **	0.792(0.696,0.901) **	0.79(0.694,0.899) **

IRR Incidence rate ratio, PC Place connectivity 2019, CI Confidence interval

^*: p < 0.05

^**: p < 0.001