Table.
Selected projections of public spending on health in the UK
| Baseline expenditure (% of GDP) | Annual real growth | Projected expenditure (% of GDP) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-down projections | |||
| OECD (cost-containment) | 6·5% (2010) | Not calculated | 7·9% (2030; 1·4% increase) |
| OECD (constant cost-pressure) | 6·5% (2010) | Not calculated | 8·4% (2030; 1·9% increase) |
| Office for Budget Responsibility | 7·1% (2017–18) | Not calculated | 9·9% (2037–38; 2·8% increase) |
| Bottom-up projections | |||
| Health Foundation with the Institute for Fiscal Studies (status quo) | 7·3% (2018–19) | 3·3% (2033–34) | 8·9% (2033–34; 1·6% increase) |
| Health Foundation with the Institute for Fiscal Studies (modernised scenario) | 7·3% (2018–19) | 4·0% (2033–34) | 9·9% (2033–34; 2·6% increase) |
| Institute for Public Policy Research (England) | Not calculated (2016–17) | 3·8% (2029–30) | Not calculated |