Table 3.
Stage 2 forecast summary.
| Destination | Indicator | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | ||||
| Mauritius | Deepest impact | −99.99% | −99.99% | −99.99% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 70.12% | 45.11% | 22.99% | |
| South Africa | Deepest impact | −100% | −100% | −100% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 66.05% | 40.24% | 16.16% | |
| Tunisia | Deepest impact | −99.23% | −99.23% | −99.23% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q4 | 2020Q4 | 2020Q4 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 58.64% | 33.40% | 11.43% | |
| The Americas | ||||
| Canada | Deepest impact | −98.42% | −98.42% | −98.42% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q4 | 2020Q4 | 2020Q4 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 57.83% | 32.88% | 10.87% | |
| Chile | Deepest impact | −99.75% | −99.75% | −99.75% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 53.63% | 29.39% | 10.62% | |
| Mexico | Deepest impact | −76.92% | −89.71% | −95.06% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q4 | 2021Q1 | 2021Q1 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 55.08% | 30.52% | 10.73% | |
| USA | Deepest impact | −95.16% | −95.16% | −95.16% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 56.45% | 31.62% | 10.95% | |
| Asia | ||||
| Indonesia | Deepest impact | −88.41% | −89.74% | −95.08% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q3 | 2021Q1 | 2021Q1 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 55.77% | 31.06% | 10.79% | |
| Japan | Deepest impact | −99.90% | −99.90% | −99.90% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 55.66% | 30.95% | 10.68% | |
| Malaysia | Deepest impact | −99.70% | −99.70% | −99.70% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 66.03% | 40.21% | 12.20% | |
| South Korea | Deepest impact | −97.90% | −97.90% | −97.90% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 56.05% | 31.31% | 9.63% | |
| Singapore | Deepest impact | −99.90% | −99.90% | −99.90% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 57.33% | 32.46% | 9.18% | |
| Thailand | Deepest impact | −100% | −100% | −100% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 58.33% | 33.40% | 11.28% | |
| Europe | ||||
| Bulgaria | Deepest impact | −77.81% | −92.60% | −96.45% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 69.37% | 44.21% | 21.73% | |
| Czech | Deepest impact | −95.70% | −95.70% | −95.70% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 69.87% | 44.85% | 22.75% | |
| Finland | Deepest impact | −96.00% | −96.00% | −96.00% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 69.99% | 45.00% | 22.95% | |
| Sweden | Deepest impact | −88.50% | −90.45% | −95.24% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 69.98% | 44.99% | 22.92% | |
| UK | Deepest impact | −95.70% | −95.70% | −95.70% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | 2020Q2 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 69.20% | 44.19% | 22.12% | |
| The Pacific | ||||
| Australia | Deepest impact | −99.48% | −99.48% | −99.48% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q3 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 55.51% | 30.96% | 11.18% | |
| New Zealand | Deepest impact | −99.48% | −99.48% | −99.48% |
| Bottom time | 2020Q4 | 2020Q4 | 2020Q4 | |
| 2021 recovery rate | 54.16% | 29.89% | 10.96% |
Note: “Deepest impact” refers to the deepest decline of visitor arrivals in percentage against the same quarter in 2019; “Bottom time” is the quarter when the deepest impact takes place; “2021 recovery rate” refers to the ratio of the predicted annual total visitor arrivals in 2021 against the annual visitor arrivals in 2019.