Table 2.
MASE of 15 forecasting methods across four rolling periods.
| One-quarter-ahead | Two-quarters-ahead | Three-quarters-ahead | Four-quarters-ahead | Overall performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARIMA | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| STL | 1.57 | 1.68 | 1.77 | 1.72 | 1.69 |
| Snaïve | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| ETS | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 1.42 | 1.24 |
| RN | 5.54 | 5.71 | 6.02 | 6.41 | 5.91 |
| NN | 1.27 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.82 | 1.46 |
| SVM | 2.12 | 2.04 | 2.20 | 2.58 | 2.24 |
| STL-RN | 1.80 | 1.86 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.88 |
| STL-NN | 1.59 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 1.90 | 1.62 |
| STL-SVM | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.72 |
| C_TS | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| C_AI | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.72 | 2.06 | 1.70 |
| C_Hybrid | 1.57 | 1.61 | 1.75 | 1.84 | 1.67 |
| C_10 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.27 |