Table 4.
Effect of Mortality and Flu on Real Wages, by Occupation.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | Builder | Stone-Cutter | Carpenter | Blacksmith | Metal | Painter | Tailor | Shoemaker | |
| Panel A: Mortality | |||||||||
|
Excess Death Ratect |
11.30*** | −4.81* | −3.61 | −6.01 | −7.01** | −3.92 | −7.91** | −11.07*** | −12.09** |
| (3.03) | (2.49) | (3.62) | (3.61) | (2.58) | (3.71) | (2.98) | (2.74) | (5.05) | |
| Lag Real Wagect | -0.61*** | −0.55*** | −0.52*** | -0.51*** | −0.52*** | −0.46*** | −0.44*** | −0.44*** | −0.53*** |
| (0.08) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.09) | |
| Panel B: Mortality(2) | |||||||||
| Excess Death Ratect | -11.21*** | −4.70* | −3.79 | −6.25 | −6.42** | −1.16 | −8.16** | −11.01*** | −12.57** |
| (3.19) | (2.52) | (3.57) | (3.57) | (2.61) | (2.75) | (3.03) | (2.55) | (4.93) | |
| Excess Death Rate Lagct | -1.27 | −1.49 | 2.41 | 3.26 | −7.75** | −2.95 | 3.22 | −0.83 | 6.41* |
| (5.03) | (3.49) | (2.23) | (1.90) | (3.25) | (2.94) | (2.88) | (4.75) | (3.14) | |
| Lag Real Wagect | -0.61*** | −0.55*** | −0.52*** | −0.51*** | −0.52*** | −0.43*** | −0.44*** | −0.44*** | −0.52*** |
| (0.08) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.05) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.09) | |
| Total Effect | -12.47** | −6.19 | −1.38 | −3.01 | −14.17*** | −4.11 | −4.94 | −11.84* | −6.17 |
| (5.03) | (4.14) | (4.08) | (4.62) | (3.38) | (3.07) | (2.96) | (6.40) | (7.53) | |
| Panel C: Flu Effect | |||||||||
| Flu1918c ∗ D1918 | -19.23*** | −10.10*** | −8.13*** | −7.07*** | −6.02*** | −1.54 | −5.99 | −15.84*** | −23.45*** |
| (2.83) | (2.68) | (2.22) | (2.10) | (1.69) | (2.33) | (6.07) | (1.76) | (0.70) | |
| Flu1918c ∗ DP ost−1918 | -4.16 | −6.51* | −9.25*** | −6.32** | −3.38 | −3.51 | −0.95 | −3.67 | −2.44* |
| (3.12) | (3.23) | (2.97) | (2.84) | (2.53) | (2.58) | (6.20) | (2.39) | (1.30) | |
| Lag Real Wagect | -0.61*** | −0.56*** | −0.52*** | -0.51*** | −0.52*** | −0.45*** | −0.44*** | −0.44*** | −0.52*** |
| (0.08) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (.0.09) | |
| Panel D: Flu Effect (2) | |||||||||
| Flu1918c ∗ DP ost−1917 | -5.34 | −6.80** | −9.16*** | −6.38** | −3.59 | −3.36 | −1.33 | −4.59* | −4.04* |
| (3.28) | (3.16) | (2.86) | (2.73) | (2.42) | (2.54) | (6.19) | (2.49) | (2.06) | |
| Lag Real Wagect | -0.61*** | −0.56*** | −0.52*** | -0.52*** | −0.52*** | −0.45*** | −0.44*** | −0.44*** | −0.53*** |
| (0.08) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.09) | |
| Observations | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 |
Notes: Dependent variable is annual growth rate of real wage for province and year. Excess Death Rate is difference number of deaths and predicted by linear regression (normalized by population). In Panel C and D, Flu1918 is the value of excess death in 1918. 1918 is a dummy equal to one for year 1918. Dt is a dummy equal to one for year t and zero otherwise. t = Pre-1918 is omitted from the regression and it is the control period. Total Effect is the sum of both coefficients. Province an year fixed effects included. The table reports fixed effects regressions weighted by population. Standard errors are clustered at the year level. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.