Table 4.

Expected duration of the emergency declaration and COVID-19 by survey week.

(a) B-to-C service industries
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
	Most-likely		Shortest		Longest		Most-likely
	expected duration of		expected duration of		expected duration of		expected duration of
	emergency declaration		emergency declaration		emergency declaration		COVID-19 in Japan
Later group	$-$5.34***		$-$0.34		$-$11.29***		$-$0.12
	(1.80)		(1.17)		(2.74)		(0.38)
Later group $\times$ Suspension request		$-$4.98		0.44		$-$9.32		$-$0.03
		(3.45)		(2.18)		(5.97)		(0.83)
Later group $\times$ No suspension request		$-$5.40***		$-$0.54		$-$11.78***		$-$0.14
		(2.08)		(1.36)		(3.08)		(0.43)
Suspension request		$-$4.55		$-$2.21		$-$6.39		$-$0.27
		(2.77)		(1.86)		(4.63)		(0.65)
Constant	47.43***	48.34***	26.83***	27.27***	87.34***	88.62***	10.03***	10.08***
	(1.28)	(1.49)	(0.88)	(1.03)	(1.87)	(2.09)	(0.26)	(0.30)
Observations	3209	3209	3098	3098	3110	3110	3223	3223
(b) Other industries (B-to-B service and non-service industries)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Most-likely	Shortest	Longest	Most-likely
	expected	expected	expected	expected
	duration	duration	duration	duration
	of emergency	of emergency	of emergency	of COVID-19
	declaration	declaration	declaration	in Japan
Later group	$-$4.42**	$-$0.17	$-$9.052***	0.033
	(1.89)	(1.32)	(3.037)	(0.387)
Constant	47.82***	27.73***	90.659***	9.752***
	(1.34)	(0.90)	(2.116)	(0.264)
Observations	2857	2755	2759	2872

Notes: This table displays the estimation results about the effects of new information on the expected duration of the emergency declaration. Panel (a) shows the results for firms in B-to-C service industries, and panel (b) for the rest of the firms. “Most-likely expected duration of emergency declaration” is the expected duration of the emergency declaration, defined by the number of days from May 8 until the most likely expected date when the emergency declaration is lifted in all prefectures. “Shortest expected duration of emergency declaration” (or “Longest expected duration of emergency declaration”) is defined in the same way as before based on the earliest (or latest) expected dates when the emergency declaration was lifted in all prefectures. “Most-likely duration of COVID-19 in Japan” is defined by the number of months from May 2020 until daily new infections become zero for the first time in Japan. “Later group” takes 1 if the firm was surveyed during May 15–17, and 0 if during May 8–9. “Suspension request” takes 1 if the suspension was requested of the firm’s industry in April or May, and 0 otherwise. “No suspension request” is defined by 1- “Suspension request.” The observations are weighted to match the number of firms in the Economic Census. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ${}^{***}$ for $p<0.01$, ${}^{**}$ for $p<0.05$, and ${}^{*}$ for $p<0.1$.