Table 5.
Mechanism (2): state-level changes in mobility, changes in employment, and income levels.
| All crime | Domestic violence | Lapsed alimony | Sexual crimes | Femicide | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Panel A: 1(Higher than median change in mobility) | |||||
| 1(Post-COVID-19) x 1(High Change Mobility) | 1.605 | 0.924 | 0.661** | 0.005 | 0.015 |
| (1.323) | (1.037) | (0.318) | (0.263) | (0.014) | |
| 1(Post-COVID-19) | −3.867*** | −2.282*** | −0.963*** | −0.600*** | −0.023** |
| (0.996) | (0.708) | (0.240) | (0.203) | (0.012) | |
| Panel B: 1(Higher than Median Increase in Men's Unemployment) | |||||
| 1(Post-COVID-19) x 1((High Men's Unemployment) | −1.241 | −1.101 | 0.052 | −0.156 | −0.035*** |
| (1.282) | (1.001) | (0.335) | (0.257) | (0.012) | |
| 1(Post-COVID-19) | −2.338** | −1.210 | −0.611*** | −0.520*** | 0.003 |
| (1.078) | (0.834) | (0.220) | (0.170) | (0.009) | |
| Panel C: 1(Higher than Median Increase in Women's Unemployment) | |||||
| 1(Post-COVID-19) x 1(High Women's Unemployment) | −1.026 | −0.917 | −0.117 | 0.015 | −0.007 |
| (1.331) | (1.042) | (0.326) | (0.261) | (0.013) | |
| 1(Post-COVID-19) | −2.415** | −1.275 | −0.525*** | −0.605*** | −0.011 |
| (1.187) | (0.959) | (0.175) | (0.185) | (0.007) | |
| Panel D: 1(Higher than Median Increase in Men's Unemployment Relative to Women's Unemployment) | |||||
| 1(Post-COVID-19) x 1(High Relative - Men to Women) | −0.870 | −0.696 | −0.079 | −0.070 | −0.025* |
| (1.366) | (1.066) | (0.336) | (0.265) | (0.013) | |
| 1(Post-COVID-19) | −2.606** | −1.478 | −0.554*** | −0.569*** | −0.005 |
| (1.084) | (0.911) | (0.177) | (0.174) | (0.009) | |
| Panel E: 1(Above Median State-level Support During the Pandemic) | |||||
| 1(Post-COVID-19) x 1(High P.C. Support) | −1.650 | −1.352 | −0.099 | −0.212 | 0.013 |
| (1.416) | (1.066) | (0.357) | (0.309) | (0.014) | |
| 1(Post-COVID-19) | −2.297*** | −1.218* | −0.547*** | −0.513*** | −0.020** |
| (0.856) | (0.736) | (0.158) | (0.086) | (0.010) | |
| Panel F: 1(High Human Development Index - State Higher than Mexico's HDI) | |||||
| 1(Post-COVID-19) x 1(High HDI) | −3.104** | −2.156** | −0.399 | −0.521* | −0.027* |
| (1.304) | (0.972) | (0.390) | (0.294) | (0.016) | |
| 1(Post-COVID-19) | −1.747** | −0.918 | −0.431*** | −0.395*** | −0.004 |
| (0.756) | (0.688) | (0.149) | (0.072) | (0.010) | |
| Observations | 640 | 640 | 640 | 640 | 640 |
| Pre-Lockdown Mean Dependent | 17.42 | 13.22 | 1.45 | 2.68 | 0.07 |
| Baseline FE | X | X | X | X | X |
| Time Trends | X | X | X | X | X |
Source: Mexico's National Public Security System (Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública). See Appendix B for data sources used for the mechanisms. Notes: Difference-in-differences-differences estimates from Equation (3). Estimates show the grouped post-periods (month three 2020 onward) relative to the pre-pandemic (month three and before). The interacted estimate shows the post-period interacted with the mechanism of interest. Monthly linear time trends are included. State-level aggregate crime rates shown. Baseline fixed effects are included at the state, month, and year. The specification is weighted by the state-level population. Estimation includes January through October over 2019–2020. Robust standard errors are clustered at the state level. Significance levels: * , ** , *** Crimes are measured per 100,000 persons. Alternative specification with continuous measures shown in Table B.4.