Table 1.
Key model parameters input.
| Parameters | Value | Range (Upper, Lower) | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost | ||||
| Cost of sintilimab (100mg) | 169.79 | (135.83, 169.79) | Gamma | (25, 26) |
| Cost of Cisplatin per unit (10mg) | 1.47 | (1.38, 1.47) | Gamma | |
| Cost of Cisplatin per unit (30mg) | 3.01 | (3.01, 4.4) | Gamma | |
| Cost of paclitaxel per unit (100mg) | 27.98 | (27, 28) | Gamma | |
| Cost of 5-fluorouracil | 9.12 | (7.29, 10.94) | Gamma | |
| Cost of Camrelizumab | 460.31 | (368.25, 552.37) | Gamma | |
| Cost of Anlotinib | 675.42 | (540.34, 675.42) | Gamma | |
| Cost of Docetaxel | 24.87 | (24.76, 59.56) | Gamma | |
| Cost of BSC | 116.14 | (92.91, 139.36) | Gamma | (27) |
| Routine follow-up cost per cycle | 51.07 | (40.86, 61.29) | Gamma | |
| Cost of laboratory tests and radiological examinations | 247.56 | (198.05, 297.07) | Gamma | |
| Cost of salvage therapy per cycle | 443.21 | (354.57, 531.85) | Gamma | |
| Cost of end-of-life | 1,460.30 | (1,168.24, 1,752.36) | Gamma | |
| Cost of neutrophil count decreased | 116.37 | (51.11, 357.8) | Gamma | (25, 26, 28) |
| Cost of white blood cell count decreased | 116.37 | (51.11, 357.8) | Gamma | |
| Cost of lymphocyte count decreased | 116.37 | (51.11, 357.8) | Gamma | |
| Cost of platelet count decreased | 1,523.82 | (1,240.17, 1,771.67) | Gamma | |
| Cost of anemia | 140.40 | (106.73, 160.1) | Gamma | |
| Cost of pneumonia | 1,640.00 | (1,312, 1,968) | Gamma | (29) |
| Cost of increase in blood pressure | 113.53 | (106.73, 160.1) | Gamma | (30) |
| Cost of hypokalaemia | 3,223.00 | (2,578.4, 3,867.6) | Gamma | (31) |
| Cost of asthenia | 107.00 | (80, 134) | Gamma | (32) |
| Utility | ||||
| Utility of PFS | 0.75 | (0.6, 0.9) | Beta | (33) |
| Utility of PD | 0.67 | (0.54, 0.8) | Beta | |
| Disutility of neutrophil count decreased | 0.20 | (0.16, 0.24) | Beta | (34) |
| Disutility of lymphocyte count decreased | 0.20 | (0.16, 0.24) | Beta | (28) |
| Disutility of white blood cell count decreased | 0.20 | (0.16, 0.24) | Beta | (34) |
| Disutility of platelet count decreased | 0.11 | (0.09, 0.13) | Beta | (35) |
| Disutility of anemia | 0.07 | (0.06, 0.09) | Beta | (36) |
| Disutility of pneumonia | 0.05 | (0.04, 0.06) | Beta | (37) |
| Disutility of increase in blood pressure | 0.08 | (0.06, 0.1) | Beta | (34) |
| Disutility of hypokalaemia | 0.03 | (0.02, 0.04) | Beta | (31) |
| Disutility of asthenia | 0.10 | (0.09, 0.11) | Beta | (38) |
| Risk of adverse events (≥ grade 3) | ||||
| Sintilimab Group | ||||
| Neutrophil count decreased | 0.30 | (0.24, 0.36) | Beta | (13) |
| White blood cell count decreased | 0.17 | (0.14, 0.21) | Beta | |
| Platelet count decreased | 0.03 | (0.02, 0.03) | Beta | |
| Anemia | 0.13 | (0.1, 0.15) | Beta | |
| Pneumonia | 0.03 | (0.02, 0.04) | Beta | |
| Hypokalaemia | 0.05 | (0.04, 0.06) | Beta | |
| Increase in blood pressure | 0.03 | (0.02, 0.04) | Beta | |
| Chemotherapy Group | ||||
| Neutrophil count decreased | 0.34 | (0.27, 0.41) | Beta | (13) |
| White blood cell count decreased | 0.22 | (0.18, 0.27) | Beta | |
| Platelet count decreased | 0.03 | (0.02, 0.04) | Beta | |
| Anemia | 0.10 | (0.08, 0.12) | Beta | |
| Asthenia | 0.04 | (0.03, 0.04) | Beta | |
| Lymphocyte count decreased | 0.04 | (0.03, 0.05) | Beta | |
| Other Parameters | ||||
| Discount rate | 0.05 | (0, 0.08) | Beta | (17) |
| Weight | 60.00 | (48, 72) | Gamma | (13) |
| Proportion of paclitaxel used in Sintilimab Group | 0.91 | (0.73, 1) | Beta | |
| Proportion of paclitaxel used in Chemotherapy Group | 0.93 | (0.75, 1) | Beta | |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment | ||||
| Sintilimab Group | ||||
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_Immountherapy | 0.13 | (0.1, 0.16) | Beta | (13) |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_Targeted drugs | 0.08 | (0.06, 0.1) | Beta | |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_chemotherapy | 0.20 | (0.16, 0.24) | Beta | |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_BSC | 0.59 | (0.67, 0.51) | Beta | |
| Chemotherapy Group | ||||
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_Immountherapy | 0.18 | (0.14, 0.22) | Beta | (13) |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_Targeted drugs | 0.12 | (0.1, 0.14) | Beta | |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_chemotherapy | 0.23 | (0.18, 0.28) | Beta | |
| Proportion of Subsequent treatment_BSC | 0.47 | (0.58, 0.36) | Beta | |
PD, progressed disease; PFS, progression-free survival; BSC, best-supportive care.
All costs were calculated in USD.