Table 1.
Overall cohort clinical description (n=392)
| Univariate statistics | Unadjusted | Adjusted model (logistic regression) |
Adjusted model (COX regression) |
|||||||
| Missing data n/451 | Progressor n=125 | Non-progressor n=267 | P value | OR (95% CI) |
P value | OR (95% CI) |
P value | HR (95% CI) |
P value | |
| Age* (years) |
None | 53 (21) (22–80) |
50 (19) (18–82) |
0.108 | 1.018 (0.998 to 1.030) |
0.030 | ||||
| Sex (F/M) |
None | 89/36 | 195/72 | 0.718 | 0.940 (0.638 to 1.577) |
0.081 | ||||
| Smoking (never/ever) | 1 | 36/89 | 122/144 | <0.0001 | 3.072 (1.994 to 4.733) |
<0.0001 | 2.626 (1.718 to 4.331) |
<0.0001 | 1.813 (1.228 to 3.106) |
0.015 |
| HLA SE (yes/no) |
1 | 93/32 | 121/145 | <0.0001 | 3.239 (2.102 to 4.990) |
<0.0001 | 3.204 (1.902 to 4.832) |
<0.0001 | 2.575 (1.522 to 3.976) |
<0.0001 |
| EMS* (minutes) |
1 | 30 (60) (0–480) |
5 (30) (0–560) |
<0.0001 | 1.003 (1.000 to 1.006) |
0.031 | ||||
| ESR* (minutes) |
1 | 14 (19) (1–83) |
10 (15) (1–71) |
<0.0001 | 1.042 (1.018 to 1.051) |
<0.0001 | 1.040 (1.015 to 1.050) |
<0.0001 | 1.031 (1.015 to 1.044) |
<0.0001 |
| CRP (hs)* (mg/L) |
1 | 2.6 (8) (0–80) |
1.5 (4) (0–83) |
0.015 | 1.037 (0.009 to 1.064) |
0.011 | ||||
| TJC78* | 1 | 2 (4) (0–21) |
1 (3) (0–16) |
0.002 | 1.138 (1.045 to 1.199) |
0.001 | 1.162 (1.064 to 1.243) |
<0.0001 | 1.135 (1.066 to 1.199) |
<0.0001 |
| Family relatives (yes/no) |
None | 37/88 | 80/187 | 0.778 | Accuracy 72.9% SEN 37% (31–47) SPE 89% (85–92) PPV 63% (53–71) NPV 75% (72–77) AUC 0.760 (0.709 to 0.811) |
AUC 0.725 (0.723 0.727) |
||||
| Diabetes (yes/no) |
12 | 20/105 | 33/234 | 0.325 | ||||||
*Median (IQR) (range).
AUC, area under curve; CRP, C reactive protein (high sensitivity); EMS, early morning stiffness; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; PPV/NPV, positive/negative predictive value; SE, share epitope; SEN, sensitivity; SPE, specificity; TJC78, tender joint count in 78 joints.