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Estimated impact of COVID on retailing (Million GBP) – March–August 2020.
| Shock | Recovery | Seasonal ARIMA | Naïve model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pred. food stores | March 2020 | July 2020 | £4,224.40 | £7,205.10 |
| Non-store retailing | April 2020 | Unclear, potential growth | £4,302.50 | £12,610.80 |
| Pred. non-food stores | March 2020 | July 2020 | -£20,917.90 | -£19,298.50 |
| Food & beverage serving services | March 2020 | Unclear, potential contraction | -£25,096.10 | -£20,520.10 |
