Table 3.

Estimated p-scores and Z-scores by channel and method.

	Pred. food stores				Non-store retailing				Pred. non-food stores				Food & beverage serving services
	ARIMA		Naïve		ARIMA		Naïve		ARIMA		Naïve		ARIMA		Naïve
	P	Z	P	Z	P	Z	P	Z	P	Z	P	Z	P	Z	P	Z
Jan	0.26	7.11	0.31	14.80	0.58	4.18	0.69	4.32	0.20	4.80	0.25	19.88	0.08	1.05	0.08	0.98
Feb	0.06	1.69	0.05	1.74	0.27	1.61	0.31	1.64	0.01	0.37	0.00	−0.42	0.08	0.87	0.07	0.91
Mar	0.15	3.95a	0.13	6.27a	0.40	2.22a	0.36	1.78	−0.19	−8.77a	−0.20	−14.83a	−0.27	−3.85a	−0.27	−3.31a
Apr	0.12	3.33	0.10	2.16	0.52	2.69	0.54	2.92a	−0.54	−16.18	−0.54	−28.71	−0.88	−11.98	−0.88	−11.54
May	0.11	2.82	0.09	3.05	0.81	3.92	0.84	4.22	−0.41	−15.01	−0.42	−31.67	−0.83	−10.43	−0.83	−9.82
Jun	0.11	3.46	0.09	3.37	0.90	4.84	0.88	4.92	−0.15	−7.52	−0.16	−9.39	−0.72	−7.61	−0.72	−9.11
Jul	0.07	1.87b	0.05	1.44b	0.79	3.86	0.76	3.43	−0.05	−1.58b	−0.06	−4.29	−0.45	−6.54	−0.45	−6.21
Aug	0.08	2.17	0.06	1.96	0.68	2.98	0.70	3.28	−0.02	−0.62	−0.03	−1.48b	−0.20	−2.45	−0.19	−2.62

Note.

^aIndicates the month where the shock was first felt, that is the point where the estimate is clearly different for the observed value for the first time.

^bIndicates the month of recovery, that is the point where the estimate is not clearly different for the observed value.