Table 3.
Changes in colorectal cancer diagnoses and deaths between 2020 and 2050 relative to undisrupted screening for MISCAN-Colon, ASCCA, Policy1-Bowel, and OncoSim
| Comparator scenario | 6-month disruption, no recovery period, and no catch-up screening | 3-month disruption, no recovery period, and no catch-up screening | 12-month disruption, no recovery period, and no catch-up screening | 6-month disruption, 6-month recovery period (participation reduced by 50% in first 3 months and 25% in second 3 months), and no catch-up screening | 6-month disruption, 6-month recovery period (participation reduced by 50%), and no catch-up screening | 6-month disruption, no recovery period, and immediate catch-up screening | 6-month disruption, no recovery period, and delayed catch-up screening | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISCAN-Colon (Netherlands) | |||||||||
| Change in number of colorectal cancer diagnoses | |||||||||
| 2020 | 12 512 | −1558 (−12·5%) | −759 (−6·1%) | −2412 (−19·3%) | −2198 (−17·6%) | −2198 (−17·6%) | −626 (−5·0%) | −1408 (−11·3%) | |
| 2021 | 12 970 | 363 (2·8%) | 183 (1·4%) | −166 (−1·3%) | 194 (1·5%) | −31 (−0·2%) | 895 (6·9%) | 555 (4·3%) | |
| 2022 | 12 977 | 737 (5·7%) | 363 (2·8%) | 1312 (10·1%) | 1178 (9·1%) | 850 (9·4%) | −125 (−1·0%) | 1620 (12·5%) | |
| 2023 | 13 400 | 102 (0·8%) | 43 (0·3%) | 495 (3·7%) | 310 (2·3%) | 433 (3·2%) | −50 (−0·4%) | −287 (−2·1%) | |
| 2024 | 13 526 | 323 (2·4%) | 153 (1·1%) | 547 (4·0%) | 462 (3·4%) | 481 (3·6%) | −25 (−0·2%) | −104 (−0·4%) | |
| 2020–50 | 451 697 | 803 (0·2%) | 414 (0·1%) | 1619 (0·4%) | 1147 (0·2%) | 1255 (0·3%) | −36 (0·0%) | −67 (0·0%) | |
| Change in number of colorectal cancer deaths | |||||||||
| 2020–50 | 169 016 | 678 (0·4%) | 324 (0·2%) | 1360 (0·8%) | 975 (0·6%) | 609 (0·6%) | −7 (0·0%) | −52 (0·0%) | |
| ASCCA (Netherlands) | |||||||||
| Change in number of colorectal cancer diagnoses | |||||||||
| 2020 | 13 562 | −1866 (−13·8%) | −933 (−6·9%) | −2799 (−20·6%) | −2559 (−18·9%) | −2566 (−18·9%) | −932 (−6·9%) | −1760 (−13·0%) | |
| 2021 | 13 473 | 309 (2·3%) | 154 (1·1%) | −457 (−3·4%) | 54 (0·4%) | −266 (−2·0%) | 1261 (9·4%) | 757 (5·6%) | |
| 2022 | 13 146 | 1104 (8·4%) | 552 (4·2%) | 1807 (13·7%) | 1610 (12·2%) | 1657 (12·6%) | −131 (−1·0%) | 1982 (15·1%) | |
| 2023 | 13 213 | 125 (0·9%) | 63 (0·5%) | 739 (5·6%) | 416 (3·1%) | 606 (4·6%) | −19 (−0·1%) | −282 (−2·1%) | |
| 2024 | 13 043 | 451 (3·5%) | 226 (1·7%) | 737 (5·7%) | 627 (4·8%) | 640 (4·9%) | −37 (−0·3%) | −107 (−0·8%) | |
| 2020–50 | 405 025 | 1803 (0·4%) | 902 (0·2%) | 3615 (0·9%) | 2883 (0·7%) | 3091 (0·8%) | 74 (0·0%) | 267 (0·1%) | |
| Colorectal cancer deaths | |||||||||
| 2020–50 | 142 621 | 881 (0·6%) | 440 (0·3%) | 1762 (1·2%) | 1395 (1·0%) | 1500 (1·1%) | 38 (0·0%) | 131 (0·1%) | |
| Policy1-Bowel (Australia) | |||||||||
| Change in number of colorectal cancer diagnoses | |||||||||
| 2020 | 17 391 | −1537 (−8·8%) | −759 (−4·4%) | −2264 (−13·0%) | −2092 (−12·0%) | −2075 (−11·9%) | −773 (−4·4%) | −1516 (−8·7%) | |
| 2021 | 17 397 | 313 (1·8%) | 176 (1·0%) | −286 (−1·6%) | 111 (0·6%) | −129 (−0·7%) | 892 (5·1%) | 551 (3·2%) | |
| 2022 | 18 458 | 492 (2·7%) | 243 (1·3%) | 548 (3·0%) | 767 (4·2%) | 816 (4·4%) | 20 (0·1%) | 534 (2·9%) | |
| 2023 | 18 548 | 202 (1·1%) | 78 (0·4%) | 456 (2·5%) | 409 (2·2%) | 456 (2·5%) | 8 (0·0%) | 307 (1·7%) | |
| 2024 | 18 618 | 308 (1·7%) | 138 (0·7%) | 454 (2·4%) | 452 (2·4%) | 492 (2·6%) | 7 (0·0%) | 305 (1·6%) | |
| 2020–50 | 618 564 | 3552 (0·6%) | 1672 (0·3%) | 7140 (1·2%) | 5365 (0·9%) | 5831 (0·9%) | 205 (0·0%) | 1177 (0·2%) | |
| Change in number of colorectal cancer deaths | |||||||||
| 2020–50 | 196 336 | 1961 (1·0%) | 979 (0·5%) | 3968 (2·0%) | 2897 (1·5%) | 3233 (1·6%) | 126 (0·1%) | 423 (0·2%) | |
| OncoSim (Canada) | |||||||||
| Change in number of colorectal cancer diagnoses | |||||||||
| 2020 | 21 721 | −1417 (−6·5%) | −832 (−3·8%) | −1737 (−8·0%) | −1551 (−7·1%) | −1628 (−7·5%) | −827 (−3·8%) | −1084 (−5·0%) | |
| 2021 | 21 970 | 406 (1·8%) | 302 (1·4%) | −238 (−1·1%) | 170 (0·8%) | −41 (−0·2%) | 1169 (5·3%) | 622 (2·8%) | |
| 2022 | 22 295 | 785 (3·5%) | 1124 (5·0%) | 1080 (4·8%) | 923 (4·1%) | 1050 (4·7%) | −53 (−0·2%) | 470 (2·1%) | |
| 2023 | 22 295 | 762 (3·4%) | 1101 (4·9%) | 1080 (4·8%) | 923 (4·1%) | 1050 (4·7%) | −53 (−0·2%) | 470 (2·1%) | |
| 2024 | 22 295 | 785 (3·5%) | 1124 (5·0%) | 1080 (4·8%) | 923 (4·1%) | 1050 (4·7%) | −53 (−0·2%) | 493 (2·2%) | |
| 2020–50 | 841 511 | 2844 (0·3%) | 1671 (0·2%) | 5212 (0·6%) | 3733 (0·4%) | 4393 (0·5%) | 142 (0·0%) | 229 (0·0%) | |
| Change in number of colorectal cancer deaths | |||||||||
| 2020–50 | 311 133 | 1319 (0·4%) | 799 (0·3%) | 2366 (0·8%) | 1707 (0·5%) | 2002 (0·6%) | 65 (0·0%) | −66 (0·0%) | |
Data are presented as absolute change in individuals aged 50 years and older compared with the comparator scenario of undisrupted screening; numbers in parentheses show percentage change compared with the comparator scenario. MISCAN-Colon=MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis for colorectal cancer. ASCCA=Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer.