Appendix 2—table 2. Parameter values used to generate simulations using numerical solutions to Equation 4, compared to parameter estimates assuming model C.

The age of the allele was set to 29,000 years in all simulations. Columns named ‘long’ and ‘lat’ indicate the longitude and latitude of the geographic origin of the allele, respectively.

Simulation		$s$	${\sigma }_x$(km2/gen)	${\sigma }_y$(km2/gen)	vx (km/gen)	vy (km/gen)	Long	Lat
		True/pred (95% CI)	True/pred (95% CI)	True/pred (95% CI)	True/pred (95% CI)	True/pred (95% CI)	True/pred	True/pred
C1	Sample age >5000	0.02/0.0189 (0.0188 to 0.0189)	20/52.246 (52.2051 to 52.2872)	20/16.373 (16.332 to 16.4139)	-2/-1.675 (-1.6771 to -1.6722)	-2/-2.067 (-2.0702 to -2.0639)	25/4	52/45
	Sample age <5000	0.02/0.0231 (0.023 to 0.0233)	20/11.086 (10.9286 to 11.2441)	20/15.606 (15.3659 to 15.8467)	-2/0.399 (0.3946 to 0.4037)	-2/-2.491 (-2.5458 to -2.436)	–	–
C2	Sample age >5000	0.02/0.0185 (0.0176 to 0.0195)	10/19.434 (5.6736 to 33.1952)	20/18.727 (4.8938 to 32.5605)	-1.2/1.579 (1.2671 to 1.8905)	1.9/-0.801 (-1.1684 to -0.4331)	25/-6	52/38
	Sample age <5000	0.02/0.0205 (0.0175–0.0234)	10/38.144 (10.3123 to 65.9749)	20/51.094 (14.0489 to 88.1388)	-1.2/-1.299 (-2.7247 to 0.1266)	1.9/2.493 (2.4929 to 2.4933)	–	–
C3	Sample age >5000	0.02/0.0255 (0.0254–0.0256)	30/59.237 (59.1269 to 59.347)	10/6.604 (6.5991 to 6.6087)	1.8/2.195 (2.1918 to 2.1985)	-0.8/0.438 (0.4381 to 0.4387)	25/65	52/66
	Sample age <5000	0.02/0.0079 (0– 0.0165)	30/86.511 (0 to 194.0772)	10/40.693 (24.3946 to 56.9905)	1.8/-2.498 (-2.4983 to -2.498)	-0.8/-0.014 (-3.4481 to 3.4204)	–	–
C4	Sample age >5000	0.02/0.0197 (0.0191–0.0204)	10/19.647 (14.975 to 24.3197)	10/13.585 (0 to 27.2936)	1.2/-0.054 (-0.0968 to -0.0111)	1/0.72 (0.4278 to 1.0124)	25/44	52/50
	Sample age <5000	0.02/0.0137 (0.0046–0.0229)	10/14.151 (0 to 32.1031)	10/4.093 (0 to 49.4651)	1.2/0.8 (-3.4903 to 5.0895)	1/2.434 (2.4299 to 2.4387)	–	–