Appendix 2—table 3. Parameter value estimates for each of the nine clustering schemes and true parameter values used to generate the deterministic simulation.
The age of the allele was set to 17,400 years. Columns named ‘long’ and ‘lat’ indicate the longitude and latitude of the geographic origin of the allele, respectively.
| Sampling scheme | (95% CI) | (km2/gen) (95% CI) | (km2/gen) (95% CI) | (km/gen) (95% CI) | (km/gen)(95% CI) | Long | Lat | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homogeneous 75%/25% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0385 (0.0364 to 0.0406) | 24.592 (14.9174 to 34.2675) | 16.194 (4.8309 to 27.5568) | -1.209 (-1.6947 to -0.7229) | -1.555 (-2.0804 to -1.0294) | 44 | 48 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0261 (0.0201 to 0.0321) | 45.725 (19.0071 to 72.4437) | 11.95 (0.0000 to 27.2152) | 2.499 (2.4993 to 2.4996) | -0.905 (-2.3876–0.5783) | |||
| Homogeneous 50%/50% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0379 (0.0364 to 0.0394) | 23.071 (0.0000 to 66.2585) | 11.455 (0.0000 to 26.4585) | -0.827 (-3.2669 to 1.6124) | -0.934 (-1.5199 to -0.3476) | 46 | 51 |
| Sample age <5000 | 33.944 (0.0292 to 0.0385) | 33.944 (13.1707 to 54.7167) | 6.183 (0.0000 to 13.3805) | 0.478 (-0.5529 to 1.5089) | 0.315 (-0.1828–0.8127) | |||
| Homogeneous 25%/75% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0379 (0.0364 to 0.0394) | 22.619 (14.8534 to 30.3839) | 13.588 (6.1189 to 21.0574) | -1.4 (-1.9213 to -0.8782) | -1.021 (-1.4258 to -0.6161) | 46 | 50 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0322 (0.0257 to 0.0388) | 70.446 (24.6065 to 116.2854) | 3.786 (0.0000 to 21.6379) | 2.499 (2.4984 to 2.4987) | -0.99 (-2.0881 to 0.1079) | |||
| Intermediate 75%/25% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0378 (0.0378 to 0.0378) | 20.905 (20.904 to 20.9065) | 14.583 (14.5818 to 14.5844) | -1.069 (-1.0687 to -1.0684) | -0.547 (-0.5468 to -0.5467) | 44 | 52 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0342 (0.0276 to 0.0407) | 70.405 (29.0665 to 111.7428) | 1.936 (0.0000 to 18.9234) | 2.5 (2.4995 to 2.4998) | -1.865 (-3.0637 to -0.6655) | |||
| Intermediate 50%/50% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0379 (0.0378–0.0379) | 93.136 (93.0316 to 93.2406) | 10.99 (10.9808 to 10.9994) | 1.103 (1.1009 to 1.1048) | 0.695 (0.6939–0.6954) | 34 | 57 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0327 (0.0288–0.0367) | 22.409 (0.0000 to 69.8122) | 18.11 (7.9198 to 28.2994) | 2.496 (2.4962 to 2.4965) | -2.499 (-2.4992 to -2.4989) | |||
| Intermediate 25%/75% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0386 (0.0371–0.0402) | 21.385 (14.0301 to 28.7407) | 12.335 (3.3756 to 21.2943) | -1.028 (-1.4606 to -0.5956) | -1.307 (-1.7696 to -0.845) | 43 | 49 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0295 (0.026–0.0329) | 21.197 (6.0797 to 36.3142) | 11.318 (2.651 to 19.9851) | 2.5 (2.4997 to 2.5000) | -0.757 (-1.391 to -0.123) | |||
| Extreme 75%/25% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0362 (0.0336–0.0389) | 33.07 (0.0000 to 78.1418) | 26.744 (0.0000 to 155.2413) | -0.087 (-0.3579 to 0.1832) | -2.001 (-4.7547–0.7524) | 39 | 46 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0299 (0.0266–0.0332) | 16.702 (0.0000 to 40.5995) | 3.048 (0.0000 to 13.034) | 2.197 (0.8463 to 3.5479) | -2.499 (-2.4995 to -2.4992) | |||
| Extreme 50%/50% | Sample age >5000 | 0.0392 (0.0369–0.0416) | 95.472 (95.2997 to 95.6441) | 11.22 (5.3235 to 17.1167) | 1.633 (-2.5434 to 5.8102) | 0.258 (0.0818–0.434) | 36 | 57 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0355 (0.0314–0.0396) | 11.756 (10.3763 to 13.1361) | 11.817 (10.1474 to 13.4863) | 2.5 (2.2069 to 2.7928) | -0.362 (-0.4325 to -0.2919) | |||
| Extreme 25%/75% | Sample age >5000 | 0.047 (0.047–0.047) | 7.909 (7.9075 to 7.9106) | 5.941 (5.9403 to 5.942) | 0.454 (0.4537 to 0.4538) | -2.273 (-2.2732 to -2.2729) | 34 | 38 |
| Sample age <5000 | 0.0434 (0.0385–0.0483) | 40.097 (33.7903 to 46.4034) | 12.118 (5.781 to 18.4555) | 2.5 (1.6706 to 3.3285) | -1.435 (-2.3958 to -0.4736) | |||
| True parameter values | 0.04 | 25 | 10 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 25 | 52 | |