Table 5.
Linear regression on categories of global health security and COVID-19 outcome measures.
| Independent variables |
Model 1: COVID-19 Cases |
Model 2: COVID-19 Deaths |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coef. | p-value | [95% Conf | Interval] | Coef. | p-value | [95% Conf | Interval] | |
| GHSI score category 1 | 54059.011 | 0.365 | -63424.093 | 171542.12 | 1110.895 | 0.111 | -256.72 | 2478.509 |
| GHSI score category 2 | 32520.818 | 0.534 | -70507.909 | 135549.55 | 86.631 | 0.887 | -1112.721 | 1285.983 |
| GHSI score category 3 | 32423.189 | 0.612 | -93417.898 | 158264.27 | 745.511 | 0.317 | -719.398 | 2210.421 |
| GHSI score category 4 | 47772.482 | 0.446 | -75682.406 | 171227.37 | 478.303 | 0.512 | -958.829 | 1915.435 |
| GHSI score category 5 | -29229.913 | 0.587 | -135211.93 | 76752.103 | -929.527 | 0.139 | -2163.258 | 304.204 |
| GHSI score category 6 | -21474.877 | 0.752 | -155237 | 112287.24 | -499.759 | 0.527 | -2056.877 | 1057.359 |
| Africa | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref |
| Central Asia | -575980.71 | 0.861 | -7048712.6 | 5896751.2 | -6372.041 | 0.868 | -81720.778 | 68976.695 |
| Eastern Asia | -500457.03 | 0.877 | -6887826.2 | 5886912.1 | -86462.898 | 0.023 | -160817.93 | -12107.865 |
| Europe | 485011.6 | 0.825 | -3836650.5 | 4806673.7 | 10174.111 | 0.690 | -40134.134 | 60482.355 |
| Latin America/Caribbean | 373668.96 | 0.838 | -3229024.4 | 3976362.3 | 28234.857 | 0.186 | -13703.91 | 70173.623 |
| Northern America | 32871378 | 0.000 | 22323893 | 43418864 | 373178.83 | 0.000 | 250396.1 | 495961.56 |
| Oceania | 1304242.1 | 0.558 | -3087341.7 | 5695826 | 10308.669 | 0.691 | -40813.53 | 61430.869 |
| South-eastern Asia | -1068991 | 0.655 | -5789278 | 3651296 | -17101.567 | 0.540 | -72050.183 | 37847.05 |
| Southern Asia | 2542775.2 | 0.318 | -2471370.1 | 7556920.5 | 2896.672 | 0.922 | -55472.734 | 61266.078 |
| Western Asia | -458300.16 | 0.833 | -4730676.2 | 3814075.9 | -9505.975 | 0.706 | -59240.483 | 40228.533 |
| <million | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref |
| 1–10million | 882391.75 | 0.599 | -2427222.5 | 4192006 | 8174.867 | 0.676 | -30352.18 | 46701.915 |
| 10–50million | 35357.086 | 0.984 | -3546064.7 | 3616778.9 | 2590.866 | 0.903 | -39100.28 | 44282.011 |
| 100million+ | 10990833 | 0.000 | 5682309.5 | 16299356 | 210747.06 | 0.000 | 148950.81 | 272543.3 |
| Low income | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref |
| Lower middle income | -719377.99 | 0.679 | -4139984.6 | 2701228.6 | -10160.651 | 0.615 | -49979.755 | 29658.454 |
| Upper middle income | -269480.33 | 0.895 | -4287172.6 | 3748211.9 | 3018.908 | 0.899 | -43750.839 | 49788.655 |
| High income | 154745.72 | 0.956 | -5381128.6 | 5690620 | -18099.687 | 0.580 | -82542.513 | 46343.14 |
| Constant | -1502940.4 | 0.675 | -8575465.2 | 5569584.3 | 8424.549 | 0.840 | -73906.345 | 90755.443 |
| Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||||
| Mean dependent var 2810112.864 |
SD dependent var 8349878.210 |
Mean dependent var 33005.508 |
SD dependent var 105171.496 |
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| R-squared 0.480 |
Number of obs 191.000 |
R-squared 0.556 |
Number of obs 191.000 |
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| F-test 7.419 |
Prob > F 0.000 |
F-test 10.060 |
Prob > F 0.000 |
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| Akaike crit. (AIC) 6548.471 |
Bayesian crit. (BIC) 6620.021 |
Akaike crit. (AIC) 4847.339 |
Bayesian crit. (BIC) 4918.889 |
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| * ** p < .01, * * p < .05, * p < .1 | * ** p < .01, * * p < .05, * p < .1 | |||||||
Source: GHSI Database (2021); Legend: GHSI score category 1 (Prevention of emergence or release of pathogens); GHSI score category 2 (Early detection and reporting for epidemics of potential international concern); GHSI score category 3 (Rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic); GHSI score category 4 (Sufficient & robust health sector to treat the sick & protect health workers); GHSI score category 5 (Commitments to improving national capacity financing and adherence to norms); GHSI score category 6 (Overall risk environment and country vulnerability to biological threats)