Table 1.
Key assumptions for estimations, all pertaining to only pulmonary PTB, and key sources. Data are taken from multiple countries and applied to India.
| Data point or variable | Location (source) | Design and diagnosis | Generic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulmonary aspergillosis in India | India (WHO, 2019) | Estimated incidence, based on 79% of all cases being pulmonary | 2 059 200 |
| Percentage with cavitation at end of therapy | Multiple (Meghji et al., 2016) | Not applicable | 22% |
| Coinfection of confirmed PTB with CPA, HIV negative | Indonesia (Setianingrum et al., 2022) | Cross-sectional, 4–6 months after starting PTB therapy, Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray and some CT scans | 3% |
| Coinfection of confirmed PTB with CPA, HIV positive | Nigeria (Oladele et al., 2017) | Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray | 7% |
| CPA among clinically diagnosed PTB, HIV negative | Nigeria (Oladele et al., 2017) | Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray | 19% |
| CPA among clinically diagnosed PTB, HIV positive | Nigeria (Oladele et al., 2017) | Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray | 10% |
| CPA at end of PTB therapy 6–12 months after diagnosis | Indonesia (Setianingrum et al., 2020) Indonesia, (Setianingrum et al., 2022) |
Cross-sectional, 4–6 months after starting PTB therapy and prospective, pulmonary PTB patients at beginning and end of therapy Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray and some CT scans |
10% (8–13%) |
| Mortality of CPA, first 12 months | Multiple (see Table S2 and Figure 2) | Cohort studies, with multiple diagnostic modalities | 20% |
| Mortality of CPA, 2–5 years | Multiple* (see Table S2 and Figure 2) | Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray and CT scans | 7.5% |
| CPA development, 1–2 years after PTB cure | South Korea (Kim et al., 2022) | Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray and CT scans | 3%, up to year 2; 7.5% over 5 years |
| CPA development, 2–5 years after PTB cure | UK (Anonymous, 1968 and 1970) Uganda (Page, 2019) |
Prospective, Aspergillus precipitins, aspergilloma visible on chest X-ray Cross-sectional and prospective, Aspergillus IgG antibody, symptoms, chest X-ray and CT scans |
6.5% or 0.2% annually, with or without cavitation |
WHO = World Health Organization
⁎
Survival data from the UK, the USA, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Brazil, Hong Kong, France, Spain, Pakistan, and Australia