Table 2.
part a. Excess mortality estimates for different models according to age and geographical macro-area for the year 2020. The 95% confidence intervals are included for the three models. part b. Excess mortality estimates for different models according to the age and geographical macro-area for the year 2021. The 95% confidence intervals are included for the three models. part c. Relative excess mortality estimates for different models according to age and geographical macro-area for the year 2020. part d. Relative excess mortality estimates for different models according to age and geographical macro-area for the year 2021.
| Part a | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISTAT-ISS REPORT | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| North Italy, 0–49 years | −552 | −149 (−679; 348) | −551 (−564, −539) | 195 (−152, 497) |
| North Italy; 50–64 years | 3164 | 3263 (2610; 3882) | 3157 (3072, 3252) | 4030 (3161, 4789) |
| North Italy; 65–79 years | 15,004 | 17447 (15,,519; 19,275) | 14920 (14,231, 15,653) | 21051 (18355, 23,322) |
| North Italy; 80+ years | 56,681 | 51,684 (42,501; 60,472) | 56,722 (54,362, 59,198) | 59,189 (51,678, 65,606) |
| Entire North Italy | 74,296 | 72,695 (63,722; 81,224) | 74,241 (71,273, 77,345) | 84,507 (73,298, 94,050) |
| Central Italy; 0–49 years | −431 | −64 (−371; 216) | −432 (−451, −411) | 78 (−102, 232) |
| Central Italy; 50–64 years | 392 | 369 (−16; 728) | 389 (381, 402) | 796 (375, 1168) |
| Central Italy; 65–79 years | 1375 | 2526 (1513; 3478) | 1381 (1339, 1411) | 3564 (2408, 4556) |
| Central Italy; 80+ years | 8566 | 7743 (3789; 11471) | 8574 (8272, 8888) | 9304 (6148, 12,059) |
| Entire Central Italy | 9903 | 10,769 (6480; 14786) | 9907 (9588, 10,245) | 13,727 (9017, 17,852) |
| South Italy and islands; 0–49 years | −671 | −16 (−468; 411) | −673 (−684, −655) | 201 (−112, 476) |
| South Italy and islands; 50–64 years | 1807 | 2027 (1480; 2544) | 1802 (1764, 1855) | 1933 (1162, 2599) |
| South Italy and islands; 65–79 years | 3731 | 4898 (3322; 6383) | 3739 (3624, 3866) | 6436 (4391, 8215) |
| South Italy and islands; 80+ years | 11,461 | 9260 (3239; 15,001) | 11,477 (10,968, 12,005) | 11,471 (6698, 15,701) |
| Entire South Italy and islands | 16,328 | 16,588 (10,068; 22,781) | 16349 (15,734, 16,995) | 20,065 (12,503, 26,896) |
| Entire Italy; 0–49 years | −1654 | −183 (−1296; 877) | −1650 (−1679, −1625) | 334 (−392, 969) |
| All of Italy; 50–64 years | 5363 | 5767 (4594; 6887) | 5362 (5227, 5502) | 6600 (4708, 8242) |
| All of Italy; 65–79 years | 20,110 | 25,033 (21,102; 28815) | 20,076 (19,300, 20,882) | 30,469 (24,724, 35,487) |
| All of Italy; 80+ years | 76,708 | 68,554 (50,239; 86,130) | 76,760 (73,682, 79,970) | 78,973 (63,764, 92,199) |
| All of Italy | 100,526 | 99,968 (81,474; 117,585) | 100,530 (96,805, 104,417) | 116,431 (93,146, 136,888) |
| part b | ||||
| ISTAT-ISS REPORT | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| North Italy; 0–49 years | −694 | −253 (−778; 250) | −699 (−718, −665) | 321 (120, 502) |
| North Italy; 50–64 years | 1680 | 1870 (1232; 2501) | 1677 (1637, 1731) | 2687 (2230, 3102) |
| North Italy; 65–79 years | 3866 | 6683 (4808; 8546) | 3862 (3662, 4085) | 10,963 (9482, 12,278) |
| North Italy; 80+ years | 19,798 | 15,829 (6723; 24,651) | 19800 (18,991, 20649) | 20,982 (17,180, 24,455) |
| Entire North Italy | 24,649 | 24,523 (15,682; 33,273) | 24,654 (23,656, 25,702) | 35,056 (29,546, 40,214) |
| Central Italy; 0–49 years | −315 | 61 (−241; 344) | −313 (−332, −300) | 253 (128, 368) |
| Central Italy; 50–64 years | 895 | 913 (538; 1277) | 895 (876, 915) | 1482 (1247, 1701) |
| Central Italy; 65–79 years | 2030 | 3296 (2311; 4265) | 2030 (1969, 2091) | 4878 (4290, 5415) |
| Central Italy; 80+ years | 8766 | 8310 (4430; 12,107) | 8768 (8461, 9089) | 9072 (7520, 10,530) |
| Entire Central Italy | 11,377 | 12,742 (8586; 16,865) | 11,374 (11,001, 11,774) | 15,759 (13,471, 17,854) |
| South Italy and Islands; 0–49 years | −339 | 339 (−111; 770) | −338 (−348, −330) | 594 (412, 762) |
| South Italy and Islands; 50–64 years | 3227 | 3543 (3011; 4070) | 3227 (3148, 3304) | 3253 (2851, 3617) |
| South Italy and Islands; 65–79 years | 7443 | 8842 (7316; 10,349) | 7445 (7197, 7694) | 10444 (9458, 11,373) |
| South Italy and Islands; 80+ years | 17,059 | 15,335 (9389; 21,136) | 17,068 (16,341, 17,820) | 13,886 (11,543, 16,057) |
| Entire South Italy and Islands | 27,390 | 28,435 (22,064; 34,742) | 27,392 (26,379, 28,453) | 28,383 (24,698, 31,975) |
| All of Italy; 0–49 years | −1348 | 190 (−917; 1249) | −1345 (−1372, −1312) | 1069 (688, 1415) |
| All of Italy; 50–64 years | 5802 | 6432 (5283; 7573) | 5804 (5663, 5939) | 7282 (6368, 8140) |
| All of Italy; 65–79 years | 13,339 | 18,984 (15103; 22,819) | 13,340 (12,827, 13880) | 25,627 (22,907, 28,172) |
| All of Italy; 80+ years | 45,623 | 39,338 (21216; 57001) | 45619 (43,914, 47403) | 42,530 (35,147, 49,408) |
| All of Italy | 63,415 | 65,575 (47,496; 83,478) | 63421 (61,186, 65750) | 76,781 (65,696, 87,079) |
| part c | ||||
| ISTAT-ISS REPORT | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| North Italy; 0–49 years | −6.67 | −1.91 | −6.66 | 2.59 |
| North Italy; 50–64 years | 13.97 | 14.58 | 13.94 | 18.5 |
| North Italy; 65–79 years | 19.9 | 24.12 | 19.79 | 30.36 |
| North Italy; 80+ years | 28.98 | 25.99 | 29 | 30.66 |
| Entire North Italy | 24.61 | 24.15 | 24.59 | 28.97 |
| Central Italy; 0–49 years | −11.73 | −1.95 | −11.75 | 2.46 |
| Central Italy; 50–64 years | 3.91 | 3.7 | 3.88 | 8.27 |
| Central Italy; 65–79 years | 4.28 | 8.22 | 4.3 | 11.91 |
| Central Italy; 80+ years | 9.98 | 9 | 9.99 | 10.93 |
| Entire Central Italy | 7.52 | 8.29 | 7.53 | 10.74 |
| South Italy and Islands; 0–49 years | −8.95 | −0.24 | −8.98 | 3.04 |
| South Italy and Islands; 50–64 years | 9.33 | 10.68 | 9.31 | 10.05 |
| South Italy and Islands; 65–79 years | 6.53 | 8.82 | 6.55 | 11.83 |
| South Italy and Islands; 80+ years | 8.95 | 7.16 | 8.96 | 8.95 |
| Entire South Italy and Islands | 7.7 | 7.88 | 7.71 | 9.63 |
| All of Italy; 0–49 years | −8.51 | −1.02 | −8.49 | 1.91 |
| All of Italy; 50–64 years | 10.31 | 11.25 | 10.3 | 12.99 |
| All of Italy; 65–79 years | 12.22 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 19.75 |
| All of Italy; 80+ years | 18.73 | 16.54 | 18.74 | 19.39 |
| All of Italy | 15.57 | 15.59 | 15.57 | 18.49 |
| part d | ||||
| ISTAT-ISS REPORT | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| North Italy; 0–49 years | −8.39 | −3.24 | −8.45 | 4.42 |
| North Italy; 50–64 years | 7.42 | 8.35 | 7.4 | 12.42 |
| North Italy; 65–79 years | 5.13 | 9.24 | 5.12 | 16.05 |
| North Italy; 80+ years | 10.12 | 7.96 | 10.12 | 10.79 |
| Entire North Italy | 8.17 | 8.15 | 8.17 | 12.03 |
| Central Italy; 0–49 years | −8.58 | 1.86 | −8.51 | 8.14 |
| Central Italy; 50–64 years | 8.93 | 9.14 | 8.93 | 15.7 |
| Central Italy; 65–79 years | 6.32 | 10.72 | 6.32 | 16.67 |
| Central Italy; 80+ years | 10.21 | 9.66 | 10.21 | 10.61 |
| Entire Central Italy | 8.64 | 9.81 | 8.64 | 12.38 |
| South Italy and Islands; 0–49 years | −4.52 | 4.99 | −4.51 | 9.05 |
| South Italy and Islands; 50–64 years | 16.67 | 18.66 | 16.67 | 16.83 |
| South Italy and Islands; 65–79 years | 13.03 | 15.91 | 13.04 | 19.3 |
| South Italy and Islands; 80+ years | 13.31 | 11.85 | 13.32 | 10.58 |
| Entire South Italy and Islands | 12.91 | 13.52 | 12.92 | 13.45 |
| All of Italy; 0–49 years | −6.93 | 1.06 | −6.92 | 6.28 |
| All of Italy; 50–64 years | 11.15 | 12.55 | 11.15 | 14.4 |
| All of Italy; 65–79 years | 8.1 | 11.98 | 8.1 | 16.83 |
| All of Italy; 80+ years | 11.14 | 9.49 | 11.14 | 10.31 |
| All of Italy | 9.82 | 10.22 | 9.82 | 12.14 |