Table 2:

Expected detected-event-free period (DEFP) required for 95% and 99% confidence about no circulation (CNCx%) and time of undetected circulation between the last paralytic case and die-out (TUCx%) in Pakistan and Afghanistan assuming perfect and imperfect surveillance (based on 1,000 iterations)

	Scenario 1				Scenario 2
POE	100.0%				99.9%
Metric	CNCx%		TUCx%		CNCx%		TUCx%
x%	95%	99%	95%	99%	95%	99%	95%	99%
DEFP values assuming perfect AFP surveillance without ES	1.58	2.17	1.49	1.98	1.50	2.08	1.45	2.08
DEFP values assuming worst performing surveillance (worst AFP surveillance sensitivity and no ES)	3.25	3.75	3.19	3.74	2.67	3.25	2.58	3.24
DEFP values assuming best performing surveillance (AFP with best ES sensitivity)	0.25	0.33	0.20	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.18	0.23

Abbreviations: AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; CNCx%, DEFP at which the confidence about no circulation exceeds x%; cVDPV, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus; DEFP, detected-event-free period; ES, environmental surveillance; PIR, paralysis-to-infection ratio; POE, probability of eradication; TUCx%, time at which the probability of undetected WPV circulation after the true last case becomes exceeds x%; WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus.