Table 3.
Diagnostic accuracies of the fifth day PREDICT, VIRSTA, POSITIVE, and LAUSTAPHEN in predicting definite IE (according to the 2015 ESC-modified Duke Criteria).
| Scores | Patients |
Sensitivity % (95% CI) |
Specificity % (95% CI) |
PPV % (95% CI) |
NPV % (95% CI) |
Accuracy % (95% CI) |
PLR | NLR | TOE needed % | Endocarditis misclassified as low risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PREDICT (day 5) (all patients) | 821 | 86.4 (78.9–92.1) | 51.4 (47.6–55.1) | 23.0 (21.2–24.9) | 95.8 (93.4–97.3) | 56.4 (52.9–59.8) | 1.78 (1.60–1.97) | 0.26 (0.17–0.42) | 54.1% | 16 (13.6%) |
| VIRSTA (all patients) | 821 | 96.6 (91.2–99.1) | 38.1 (34.5–41.8) | 20.8 (19.7–21.9) | 98.5 (96.2–99.4) | 46.5 (43.1–50.0) | 1.56 (1.46–1.67) | 0.09 (0.03–0.23) | 66.9% | 4 (3.4%) |
| POSITIVE (all patients) | 783 | 76.5 (67.0–84.3) | 74.7 (71.3–78.0) | 31.2 (27.7–34.9) | 95.5 (93.7–96.8) | 75.0 (71.8–78.0) | 3.03 (2.56–3.58) | 0.31 (0.22–0.45) | 31.9% | 24 (23.5%) |
| LAUSTAPHEN (derivation cohort) | 419 | 96.5 (87.9–99.6) | 57.5 (52.2–62.6) | 26.3 (23.9–28.9) | 99.1 (96.4–99.8) | 62.8 (57.9–67.4) | 2.27 (1.99–2.58) | 0.06 (0.02–0.24) | 49.9% | 2 (3.5%) |
| LAUSTAPHEN (validation cohort) | 402 | 96.7 (88.7–99.6) | 54.3 (48.8–59.6) | 27.4 (25.0–30.0) | 98.9 (95.9–99.7) | 60.7 (55.7–65.5) | 2.11 (1.87–2.39) | 0.06 (0.02–0.24) | 53.5% | 2 (3.3%) |
ESC, European Society of Cardiology; IE, infective endocarditis; NLR, negative likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PLR, positive likelihood ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; TOE, transoesophageal echocardiography.