Table 3.
A Comparison Between This Paper and the IPCC AR6 Values
| References a | Approach/processes | This paper | AR6 (Table 9.8 and Table 9.11) | Remarks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2100 +2°C | |||||
| Thermal expansion | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.18 b | 0.18 | |
| Glaciers | Marzeion et al. (2020) | Temperature change, ensemble 10 climate models, 10 glacier models | 0.15 | 0.11 | |
| Greenland | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment, medium confidence | 0.10 | 0.30 | << c AR6 |
| Antarctica | Levermann et al. (2020) | Basal melt for 16 ice sheet models | 0.39 | 0.25 | >>AR6 |
| Land water storage change | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.04 | 0.04 | |
| Total | Range depending on correlation (Section 3) | 0.72–0.86 | 0.79 | ||
| 2100 +5°C | |||||
| Thermal expansion | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.36 | 0.36 | |
| Glaciers | Marzeion et al. (2020) | Temperature change, ensemble 10 climate models, 10 glacier models | 0.27 | 0.20 | |
| Greenland | Delhasse et al. (2018, 2020) and Goelzer et al. (2020) | ISMIP6 assessment including circulation changes and missing feedbacks leading to deep uncertainty | 0.29 | 0.59 | <<AR6 |
| Antarctica | Bulthuis et al. (2019), DeConto et al. (2021), and Golledge et al. (2015) | Mixture basal melt and ice dynamical studies | 0.59 | 0.56 | |
| Land water storage change | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.04 | 0.04 | |
| Total | Range depending on correlation (Section 3) | 1.27–1.55 | 1.60 | ||
| 2300 +2°C | |||||
| Thermal expansion | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.35 | 0.35 | |
| Glaciers | Goelzer et al. (2012) and Marzeion et al. (2012) | Temperature change, single parameterized glacier models | 0.28 | 0.29 | |
| Greenland | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.39 | 1.28 | <<AR6 |
| Antarctica | Bulthuis et al. (2019), DeConto et al. (2021), and Golledge et al. (2015) | Four ice dynamical studies with a range of physical processes simulated | 1.35 | 1.56 | |
| Land water storage change | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Total | Range depending on correlation (Section 3) | 2.19–2.47 | 3.1 | ||
| 2300 +8°C–10°C | |||||
| Thermal expansion | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 1.51 | 1.51 | |
| Glaciers | Farinotti et al. (2019) | Temperature change, all glaciers melted | 0.32 | 0.32 | |
| Greenland | Church et al. (2013), Delhasse et al. (2018, 2020) | SMB changes including deep uncertainty | 2.5 | 2.23 | |
| Antarctica | Bulthuis et al. (2019), DeConto et al. (2021), and Golledge et al. (2015) | Four ice dynamical studies with a range of physical processes simulated | 6 | 13.54 | <<AR6 |
| Land water storage change | Fox‐Kemper et al. (2021) | AR6 assessment | 0.10 | 0.10 | |
| Total | Range depending on correlation (Section 3) | 8.59–10.43 | 16.2 | ||
a
Reference used to compile the values in this study.
b
Values are in meters relative to a baseline period of 1995–2014.
c
>>/<< indicates more than 20% difference between this study and AR6. We used from AR6 the highest 83rd percentile projections across all probability distributions considered, including low confidence processes.