Table 1.

Coefficients of determination

	$R_{\mathrm{red}}^2$		$R_{\mathrm{full}}^2$
	TXx	TNn	TXx	TNn
MAM	0.52	≲0	0.85	0.87
JJA	≲0	0.58	0.87	0.95
SON	0.46	0.27	0.84	0.92
DJF	≲0	0.39	0.82	0.91

Fraction of spatial variation of the warming rates of the hottest days (TXx) and the coldest nights (TNn) at +2K warming, explained by the rates of change in distribution moments through Eq. (1) of the main text. $R_{\mathrm{red}}^2$ is the fraction explained by the first moment alone and $R_{\mathrm{full}}^2$ is the fraction explained by the first two moments (excluding skewness and next order changes).