TABLE 4.

BIC of all the unconditional and conditional models

Model	BIC
Unconditional models
Intercept‐only model (Figure 1‐ Panel A)	15,608.774
Intercept and a single linear slope model (Figure 1‐ Panel B)	15,502.183
Sudden change only model (Figure 1‐ Panel C)	15,512.291
Gradual change only model (Figure 1‐ Panel D)	15,483.787
Sudden and gradual change model (Figure 1‐ Panel F)	15,503.067
Conditional models
Only covariates model (Model 1)	15,459.411
Educational expectations predictor model (Model 2)	15,457.120
Graduation predictor model (Model 3)	15,464.250
Age first job predictor model (Model 4)	15,463.939
Type of job predictor model (Model 5)	15,468.284
All covariates and predictors model (Model 6)	15,486.284

BIC = Bayesian Information Criterion.