Fig. 3.

Temporal dynamics of cervical cancer incidence after HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for all women - by HIV and treatment status: Age standardised cervical cancer incidence per 100,000 women-years among women stratified by HIV and treatment status after HPV girls' vaccination only (Sc1) (A,B,C) and girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens (Sc3) (D,E,F). Panels show median predictions from the Det_HIV-HPV (A, D) and MicroCOSM-HPV (B,E) models of South Africa and the DRIVE model of KZN (C,F). Vaccine coverage = 90%, Vaccine efficacy = 100% against HPV-16/18/31/33/45/52/58, Vaccine duration = Lifetime; Screening = HPV testing, Screening uptake = 45% (2023–2029), 70% (2030–2044), 90% (2045+). Treatment efficacy = 100%, Lost to follow-up = 10%. Scenarios are described in Table 1.