Table 2:

Model performance characteristics

Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium (OABC) Discovery Cohort, Full models 707,077 CpGs available for modeling
Comparison groups	Accuracy (mean±SEM)	AUC-ROC (mean±SEM)	Sensitivity (mean±SEM)	Specificity (mean±SEM)	Diagnostic odds ratio (mean±SEM)	F1 score (mean±SEM)	Number of features (CpGs) included (mean±SEM)
Radiographic-only vs. non-progressor	87±0.8%	0.94±0.004	0.88±0.01	0.88±0.01	83±12	0.78±0.01	17±2
Pain-only vs. non-progressor	89±0.9%	0.97±0.004	0.92±0.01	0.89±0.01	120±20	0.83±0.02	13±2
Dual- vs. non-progressor	72±0.7%	0.79±0.006	0.70±0.01	0.74±0.01	7.4±0.4	0.74±0.01	7±2
Any (pain/radiographic/dual) vs. non-progressor	78±0.4%	0.86±0.004	0.78±0.004	0.78±0.01	15±1.0	0.85±0.003	14±2
Radiographic-only vs. pain-only	58±1%	0.62±0.01	0.54±0.02	0.60±0.01	2.2±0.2	0.51±0.02	14±3
Dual- vs. radiographic-only progressor	76±0.6%	0.82±0.007	0.78±0.06	0.72±0.03	12±1.3	0.86±0.003	10±2
Dual- vs. pain-only progressor	71±0.6%	0.79±0.007	0.74±0.006	0.76±0.03	7.8±0.7	0.84±0.003	5±1
OABC Discovery Cohort, parsimonious models 13 CpGs available for modeling
Radiographic-only vs. non-progressor	89±0.5%	0.94±0.003	0.83±0.01	0.91±0.004	77±11	0.81±0.01	n/a
Pain-only vs. non-progressor	90±0.7%	0.95±0.004	0.88±0.01	0.92±0.01	125±21	0.86±0.01	n/a
Dual- vs. non-progressor	76±0.6%	0.85±0.006	0.75±0.01	0.78±0.01	12±0.8	0.77±0.01	n/a
Any (pain/radiographic/dual) vs. non-progressor	82±0.3%	0.89±0.003	0.84±0.004	0.78±0.008	20±1.0	0.87±0.002	n/a
Applying OABC-developed parsimonious models to other independent datasets:
JoCoOA: Radiographic-only vs. non-progressor:	80±0.3%	0.88±0.003	0.78±0.004	0.88±0.004	28±1	0.86±0.002	n/a
Previous OAI dataset: Radiographic-only vs. non-progressor:	80±0.8%	0.89±0.002	0.80±0.008	0.82±0.01	20±1.4	0.80±0.005	n/a