Table 1.
Models’ performance for the first dose of vaccines’ side effect prediction.
| Training Set |
Validation Set |
Test Set |
|||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logistic Regression | SVM | XGBClassifier | RF | KNN | MLP | Logistic Regression | SVM | XGBClassifier | RF | KNN | MLP | Logistic Regression | SVM | XGBClassifier | RF | KNN | MLP | ||
| AZD1222 | Fever | 0.680 | 0.679 | 0.763 | 0.838 | 1.000 | 0.675 | 0.664 | 0.664 | 0.658 | 0.671 | 0.638 | 0.658 | 0.666 | 0.667 | 0.683 | 0.681 | 0.667 | 0.667 |
| Fatigue | 0.672 | 0.629 | 0.831 | 0.839 | 1.000 | 0.664 | 0.651 | 0.608 | 0.650 | 0.666 | 0.648 | 0.647 | 0.654 | 0.642 | 0.653 | 0.662 | 0.661 | 0.648 | |
| Headache | 0.670 | 0.668 | 0.966 | 0.833 | 1.000 | 0.666 | 0.657 | 0.651 | 0.665 | 0.668 | 0.638 | 0.655 | 0.680 | 0.675 | 0.668 | 0.696 | 0.688 | 0.675 | |
| Nausea | 0.703 | 0.580 | 0.956 | 0.876 | 1.000 | 0.682 | 0.684 | 0.573 | 0.674 | 0.686 | 0.651 | 0.679 | 0.709 | 0.499 | 0.706 | 0.727 | 0.701 | 0.704 | |
| Chills | 0.679 | 0.679 | 0.831 | 0.836 | 1.000 | 0.672 | 0.659 | 0.658 | 0.662 | 0.671 | 0.638 | 0.654 | 0.656 | 0.655 | 0.648 | 0.662 | 0.654 | 0.655 | |
| Joint Pain | 0.638 | 0.626 | 0.977 | 0.827 | 1.000 | 0.628 | 0.620 | 0.610 | 0.637 | 0.634 | 0.616 | 0.616 | 0.620 | 0.592 | 0.636 | 0.640 | 0.622 | 0.613 | |
| Muscle Pain | 0.654 | 0.650 | 0.907 | 0.830 | 1.000 | 0.655 | 0.636 | 0.632 | 0.643 | 0.656 | 0.649 | 0.635 | 0.657 | 0.649 | 0.632 | 0.660 | 0.636 | 0.658 | |
| Local side effects | 0.709 | 0.651 | 0.817 | 0.840 | 1.000 | 0.702 | 0.686 | 0.650 | 0.687 | 0.695 | 0.656 | 0.681 | 0.667 | 0.607 | 0.698 | 0.694 | 0.667 | 0.668 | |
| Sputnik V | Fever | 0.709 | 0.575 | 0.839 | 0.854 | 1.000 | 0.675 | 0.675 | 0.578 | 0.645 | 0.676 | 0.617 | 0.650 | 0.630 | 0.509 | 0.609 | 0.638 | 0.611 | 0.615 |
| Fatigue | 0.688 | 0.648 | 0.937 | 0.849 | 1.000 | 0.681 | 0.667 | 0.629 | 0.656 | 0.673 | 0.639 | 0.663 | 0.666 | 0.512 | 0.654 | 0.677 | 0.630 | 0.662 | |
| Headache | 0.702 | 0.585 | 0.811 | 0.856 | 1.000 | 0.688 | 0.675 | 0.556 | 0.673 | 0.683 | 0.644 | 0.667 | 0.675 | 0.607 | 0.665 | 0.677 | 0.657 | 0.678 | |
| Nausea | 0.702 | 0.542 | 0.963 | 0.915 | 1.000 | 0.630 | 0.641 | 0.544 | 0.659 | 0.657 | 0.572 | 0.616 | 0.710 | 0.539 | 0.691 | 0.692 | 0.582 | 0.712 | |
| Chills | 0.692 | 0.579 | 0.727 | 0.839 | 1.000 | 0.646 | 0.632 | 0.558 | 0.653 | 0.647 | 0.556 | 0.621 | 0.655 | 0.518 | 0.614 | 0.663 | 0.604 | 0.628 | |
| Joint Pain | 0.709 | 0.577 | 0.768 | 0.859 | 1.000 | 0.680 | 0.670 | 0.552 | 0.666 | 0.675 | 0.612 | 0.655 | 0.675 | 0.537 | 0.632 | 0.671 | 0.618 | 0.671 | |
| Muscle Pain | 0.699 | 0.559 | 0.961 | 0.872 | 1.000 | 0.682 | 0.666 | 0.552 | 0.646 | 0.677 | 0.621 | 0.656 | 0.666 | 0.503 | 0.645 | 0.676 | 0.624 | 0.641 | |
| Local side effects | 0.743 | 0.725 | 0.825 | 0.862 | 1.000 | 0.738 | 0.727 | 0.712 | 0.710 | 0.726 | 0.687 | 0.723 | 0.737 | 0.716 | 0.735 | 0.738 | 0.681 | 0.734 | |
| BBIBP-CorV | Fever | 0.724 | 0.694 | 0.825 | 0.848 | 1.000 | 0.720 | 0.710 | 0.681 | 0.714 | 0.716 | 0.681 | 0.705 | 0.688 | 0.665 | 0.698 | 0.707 | 0.678 | 0.686 |
| Fatigue | 0.687 | 0.686 | 0.945 | 0.830 | 1.000 | 0.683 | 0.672 | 0.672 | 0.666 | 0.679 | 0.664 | 0.669 | 0.669 | 0.670 | 0.668 | 0.678 | 0.677 | 0.667 | |
| Headache | 0.698 | 0.662 | 0.892 | 0.830 | 1.000 | 0.694 | 0.685 | 0.654 | 0.679 | 0.693 | 0.670 | 0.683 | 0.706 | 0.678 | 0.716 | 0.723 | 0.693 | 0.700 | |
| Nausea | 0.731 | 0.543 | 0.893 | 0.862 | 1.000 | 0.699 | 0.702 | 0.532 | 0.691 | 0.706 | 0.651 | 0.686 | 0.728 | 0.528 | 0.731 | 0.726 | 0.698 | 0.721 | |
| Chills | 0.729 | 0.654 | 0.797 | 0.855 | 1.000 | 0.722 | 0.716 | 0.631 | 0.716 | 0.722 | 0.673 | 0.708 | 0.752 | 0.295 | 0.741 | 0.756 | 0.729 | 0.749 | |
| Joint Pain | 0.708 | 0.653 | 0.945 | 0.831 | 1.000 | 0.704 | 0.693 | 0.640 | 0.696 | 0.699 | 0.656 | 0.688 | 0.679 | 0.632 | 0.682 | 0.671 | 0.672 | 0.676 | |
| Muscle Pain | 0.701 | 0.699 | 0.923 | 0.832 | 1.000 | 0.699 | 0.689 | 0.687 | 0.682 | 0.691 | 0.666 | 0.686 | 0.704 | 0.705 | 0.707 | 0.711 | 0.684 | 0.706 | |
| Local side effects | 0.701 | 0.696 | 0.814 | 0.830 | 1.000 | 0.701 | 0.689 | 0.684 | 0.684 | 0.695 | 0.667 | 0.687 | 0.718 | 0.715 | 0.711 | 0.722 | 0.707 | 0.715 | |
| COVAXIN | Fever | 0.703 | 0.677 | 1.000 | 0.960 | 1.000 | 0.657 | 0.584 | 0.550 | 0.615 | 0.626 | 0.608 | 0.572 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fatigue | 0.710 | 0.718 | 0.975 | 0.961 | 0.753 | 0.658 | 0.598 | 0.598 | 0.589 | 0.625 | 0.574 | 0.593 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Headache | 0.676 | 0.694 | 0.978 | 0.970 | 1.000 | 0.650 | 0.578 | 0.546 | 0.622 | 0.603 | 0.607 | 0.572 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Nausea | 0.805 | 0.715 | 1.000 | 0.952 | 1.000 | 0.547 | 0.527 | 0.533 | 0.611 | 0.561 | 0.528 | 0.540 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Chills | 0.648 | 0.645 | 0.821 | 0.952 | 1.000 | 0.618 | 0.547 | 0.486 | 0.602 | 0.607 | 0.542 | 0.549 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Joint Pain | 0.698 | 0.624 | 0.926 | 0.977 | 0.999 | 0.622 | 0.542 | 0.509 | 0.540 | 0.541 | 0.509 | 0.551 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Muscle Pain | 0.693 | 0.659 | 0.948 | 0.865 | 1.000 | 0.627 | 0.549 | 0.556 | 0.545 | 0.558 | 0.539 | 0.554 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Local side effects | 0.671 | 0.602 | 0.821 | 0.886 | 1.000 | 0.634 | 0.591 | 0.517 | 0.547 | 0.593 | 0.551 | 0.596 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| BNT162b2 | Fever | 0.759 | 0.760 | 0.919 | 0.947 | 0.818 | 0.741 | 0.688 | 0.651 | 0.718 | 0.730 | 0.661 | 0.689 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fatigue | 0.679 | 0.696 | 0.860 | 0.921 | 0.766 | 0.663 | 0.626 | 0.608 | 0.589 | 0.624 | 0.567 | 0.648 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Headache | 0.724 | 0.756 | 0.888 | 0.911 | 1.000 | 0.681 | 0.609 | 0.605 | 0.610 | 0.644 | 0.601 | 0.626 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Nausea | 0.821 | 0.857 | 0.661 | 0.979 | 1.000 | 0.748 | 0.669 | 0.494 | 0.645 | 0.657 | 0.665 | 0.656 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Chills | 0.762 | 0.782 | 0.743 | 0.994 | 1.000 | 0.706 | 0.689 | 0.621 | 0.714 | 0.704 | 0.665 | 0.700 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Joint Pain | 0.689 | 0.678 | 0.727 | 0.908 | 0.748 | 0.642 | 0.545 | 0.506 | 0.608 | 0.634 | 0.617 | 0.546 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Muscle Pain | 0.648 | 0.718 | 1.000 | 0.935 | 0.620 | 0.631 | 0.586 | 0.569 | 0.534 | 0.552 | 0.550 | 0.606 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Local side effects | 0.828 | 0.828 | 0.829 | 0.985 | 1.000 | 0.520 | 0.712 | 0.591 | 0.690 | 0.693 | 0.601 | 0.597 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| mRNA-1273 | Fever | 0.823 | 0.809 | 0.998 | 0.998 | 1.000 | 0.600 | 0.581 | 0.611 | 0.593 | 0.546 | 0.580 | 0.547 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fatigue | 0.773 | 0.748 | 0.814 | 0.978 | 1.000 | 0.653 | 0.548 | 0.553 | 0.600 | 0.572 | 0.561 | 0.586 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Headache | 0.772 | 0.784 | 0.805 | 0.959 | 0.888 | 0.694 | 0.650 | 0.605 | 0.574 | 0.613 | 0.566 | 0.628 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Nausea | 0.572 | 0.802 | 0.831 | 1.000 | 0.820 | 0.568 | 0.508 | 0.536 | 0.591 | 0.612 | 0.658 | 0.544 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Chills | 0.904 | 0.834 | 1.000 | 0.993 | 1.000 | 0.666 | 0.655 | 0.703 | 0.558 | 0.589 | 0.529 | 0.600 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Joint Pain | 0.722 | 0.692 | 0.899 | 0.995 | 1.000 | 0.477 | 0.584 | 0.559 | 0.615 | 0.584 | 0.549 | 0.530 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Muscle Pain | 0.752 | 0.723 | 0.987 | 0.967 | 0.656 | 0.568 | 0.582 | 0.561 | 0.544 | 0.519 | 0.544 | 0.585 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Local side effects | 0.817 | 0.737 | 0.787 | 0.957 | 0.749 | 0.659 | 0.630 | 0.587 | 0.593 | 0.572 | 0.529 | 0.569 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Model average performance, calculated on training, validation, and test set using AUC-ROC parameter.
First Dose Model Performance.xlsx