Table 2.
Coefficient estimates from linear probability models of first internal migration in 93 agricultural communities in the Mexican Migration Project
| Variables | (1) | (2) |
|---|---|---|
| Precipitation (ref: normal) | ||
| Dry in (t-1) | 0.0024(0.0008)∗∗∗ | 0.0014(0.0006)∗∗ |
| Wet in (t-1) | -0.0006(0.0008) | -0.0003(0.0006) |
| Temperature (ref: normal) | ||
| Hot in (t-1) | -0.0013(0.0006)∗∗ | -0.0007(0.0005) |
| Cool in (t-1) | 0.0002(0.0009) | 0.0006(0.0006) |
| Age | -0.0003(0.0000)∗∗∗ | |
| Sex (0: female, 1: male) | 0.0021(0.0004)∗∗∗ | |
| Household head? (0/1) | 0.0029(0.0005)∗∗∗ | |
| Years of education | 0.0004(0.0001)∗∗∗ | |
| Household properties (ref: none) | ||
| Medium | 0.0011(0.0008) | |
| High | -0.0008(0.0010) | |
| Household labor force in agriculture (ref: all) | ||
| Some | 0.0015(0.0005)∗∗∗ | |
| None | 0.002(0.0004)∗∗∗ | |
| Household has prior internal migrants (0/1) | 0.0056(0.0005)∗∗∗ | |
| Household has prior US migrants (0/1) | -0.0021(0.0005)∗∗∗ | |
| Community share of men in agriculture | 0.0062(0.0023)∗∗∗ | |
| Community share ever migrated internally (ref: low) | ||
| Medium | 0.0023(0.0007)∗∗∗ | |
| High | 0.0066(0.0008)∗∗∗ | |
| Community share ever migrated to US | 0.0008(0.0020) | |
| Community has no irrigation (0/1) | 0.0032(0.0024) | |
| State x year fixed effects | yes | yes |
| N (person-years) | 436,978 | 436,978 |
| R2 | 0.004 | 0.010 |
∗p<0.1, ∗∗p<0.05, ∗∗∗p<0.01. Standard errors (corrected for clustering at the community level) are in parentheses. Precipitation (temperature) deviation equals rainfall (maximum number of consecutive days over 30°C) in a community during corn season last year minus the mean value in community in 1980-1990, divided by standard deviation in that period. A community-year is wet (dry) if rainfall is one standard deviation or higher (lower) than its baseline mean, and normal otherwise. Temperature deviation categories are computed similarly. Corn season is June–February in Yucatan; September–March in Baja California, Chihuahua, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Sonora; and May–December in other states.