Figure 1.

 The bmws model. At each time step t, the latent allele frequency f_t is modeled as a mixture of beta distributions, plus spikes at zero and one. In this diagram, there are M = 3 mixture components (blue lines). Mixture weights are indicated as red bars, including the spike weights p₀ and p₁ at f_t = 0 and f_t = 1, respectively. After Wright–Fisher (WF) mating, the shape of each beta mixture component, as well as the mixture weights, is updated according to Equation 15. After observing the data a_t, the mixture weights are again updated according to Bayes’ rule (Equation 16). The process then iterates.