TABLE 3.
Univariable and multivariable predictors of ATA recurrence over 10 years after CMP-IV (Fine-Gray regression)
| Univariable regression |
Multivariable regression |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | SHR (95% CI) | P value | SHR (95% CI) | P value |
|
| ||||
| Age, y | 1.03 (1.01–1.04) | <.001 | 1.02 (1.00–1.03) | .047 |
| Sex (female) | 1.24 (0.94–1.65) | .130 | ||
| BMI, kg/m2 | 0.99 (0.98–1.02) | .910 | ||
| Diabetes | 1.16 (0.82–1.63) | .400 | ||
| Dyslipidemia | 0.96 (0.72–1.27) | .780 | ||
| Hypertension | 1.22 (0.89–1.67) | .210 | ||
| Renal failure | 0.89 (0.42–1.90) | .770 | ||
| Chronic lung disease (moderate or greater) | 0.45 (0.20–0.99) | .048 | 0.35 (0.15–0.79) | .011 |
| History/current smoker | 1.21 (0.91–1.61) | .200 | ||
| Peripheral vascular disease | 2.32 (1.61–3.35) | <.001 | 1.92 (1.31–2.82) | .001 |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1.11 (0.77–1.60) | .570 | ||
| Myocardial infarction | 1.32 (0.87–1.99) | .190 | ||
| LVEF, % | 0.99 (0.98–1.00) | .047 | 0.99 (0.98–1.00) | .140 |
| NYHA class III or IV symptoms | 1.45 (1.08–1.94) | .012 | 1.19 (0.87–1.65) | .280 |
| Nonparoxysmal AF | 1.58 (1.17–2.13) | .003 | 1.41 (1.03–1.94) | .034 |
| Left atrial size, cm | 1.25 (1.11–1.41) | <.001 | 1.17 (1.02–1.34) | .025 |
| Preoperative duration of AF, y | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | .047 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | .110 |
| Failed catheter ablation | 0.98 (0.71–1.37) | .930 | ||
| Sternotomy | 1.35 (0.96–1.90) | .088 | 1.03 (0.72–1.47) | .870 |
| Concomitant procedure | 1.32 (0.95–1.83) | .096 | 1.02 (0.70–1.49) | .910 |
| Biatrial CMP-IV lesion set | 1.01 (0.61–1.66) | .980 | ||
| Postoperative mediastinitis | 0.73 (0.09–6.00) | .770 | ||
| Prolonged ventilation | 1.21 (0.84–1.74) | .310 | ||
| Postoperative pneumonia | 1.33 (0.74–2.41) | .350 | ||
| Postoperative (early*) atrial tachyarrhythmias | 1.95 (1.44–2.62) | <.001 | 1.51 (1.07–2.12) | .018 |
| Absence of sinus rhythm at discharge | 2.50 (1.78–3.52) | <.001 | 1.62 (1.10–2.41) | .016 |
| Postoperative permanent pacemaker placement | 1.04 (0.69–1.57) | .850 | ||
Statistically significant P values are in bold. SHR, Subdistribution hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; NYHA, New York Heart Association; AF, atrial fibrillation; CMP-IV, Cox-Maze IV procedure.
*
Early defined as in-hospital (before discharge) ATAs.