TABLE E5.
Risk adjusted predictors of ATA recurrence over 10 years after CMP-IV (Fine–Gray regression)
| Unadjusted |
Adjusted |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | SHR (95% CI) | P value | SHR (95% CI) | P value |
|
| ||||
| Age, y | 1.03 (1.01–1.04) | <.001 | 1.02 (1.00–1.04) | .027 |
| Sex (female) | 1.24 (0.94–1.65) | .130 | 1.26 (0.89–1.79) | .190 |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 0.99 (0.98–1.02) | .910 | 1.00 (0.98–1.03) | .850 |
| Diabetes | 1.16 (0.82–1.63) | .400 | 0.98 (0.67–1.44) | .910 |
| Dyslipidemia | 0.96 (0.72–1.27) | .780 | 0.79 (0.57–1.10) | .160 |
| Hypertension | 1.22 (0.89–1.67) | .210 | 1.02 (0.72–1.43) | .930 |
| Renal failure | 0.89 (0.42–1.90) | .770 | 0.77 (0.33–1.81) | .550 |
| Chronic lung disease (moderate or greater) | 0.45 (0.20–0.99) | .048 | 0.33 (0.15–0.75) | .008 |
| History/current smoker | 1.21 (0.91–1.61) | .200 | 1.13 (0.82–1.56) | .460 |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 2.32 (1.61–3.35) | <.001 | 1.89 (1.26–2.83) | .002 |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1.11 (0.77–1.60) | .570 | 1.04 (0.70–1.53) | .860 |
| Myocardial infarction | 1.32 (0.87–1.99) | .190 | 1.26 (0.79–2.03) | .330 |
| LVEF, % | 0.99 (0.98–1.00) | .047 | 1.01 (0.98–1.01) | .097 |
| NYHA class III or IV symptoms | 1.45 (1.08–1.94) | .012 | 1.45 (0.81–1.62) | .430 |
| Nonparoxysmal AF | 1.58 (1.17–2.13) | .003 | 1.45 (1.04–2.01) | .029 |
| Left atrial size, cm | 1.25 (1.11–1.41) | <.001 | 1.18 (1.02–1.36) | .022 |
| Preoperative duration of AF, y | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | .047 | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | .120 |
| Failed catheter ablation | 0.98 (0.71–1.37) | .930 | 1.33 (0.87–2.02) | .190 |
| Sternotomy | 1.35 (0.96–1.90) | .088 | 1.05 (0.71–1.55) | .810 |
| Concomitant procedure | 1.32 (0.95–1.83) | .100 | 1.12 (0.73–1.73) | .600 |
| Biatrial CMP-IV lesion set | 1.01 (0.61–1.66) | .980 | 0.80 (0.47–1.39) | .430 |
| Postoperative mediastinitis | 0.73 (0.09–6.00) | .770 | 0.97 (0.19–4.93) | .970 |
| Prolonged ventilation | 1.21 (0.84–1.74) | .310 | 0.88 (0.54–1.42) | .590 |
| Postoperative pneumonia | 1.33 (0.74–2.41) | .350 | 1.47 (0.70–3.06) | .310 |
| Postoperative (early*) atrial tachyarrhythmias | 1.95 (1.44–2.62) | <.001 | 1.48 (1.04–2.11) | .030 |
| Absence of sinus rhythm at discharge | 2.50 (1.78–3.52) | <.001 | 1.76 (1.18–2.65) | .006 |
| Postoperative permanent pacemaker placement | 1.04 (0.69–1.57) | .850 | 0.92 (0.58–1.47) | .740 |
Statistically significant P values are in bold. SHR, Subdistribution hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; NYHA, New York Heart Association; AF, atrial fibrillation; CMP-IV, Cox-Maze IV procedure. *Early defined as in-hospital (prior to discharge) atrial tachyarrhythmias.