Table 2.
Regression coefficients and odds ratios predicting bail request, pre-trial detention, and indictment outcomes
| Bail Request | Pretrial Detention | Indictment | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |
| Intercept | 9.46*** (.02) | 9.10*** (.03) | 1.64*** (.03) | 0.47*** (.07) | 0.00*** (.18) | 0.55*** (.03) | 0.37*** (.07) | 0.00*** (.16) |
| Demographics | ||||||||
| Black | 0.27*** (.02) | 0.03* (.01) | 1.54*** (.03) | 0.89** (.04) | 0.83*** (.04) | 1.37*** (.03) | 1.12** (.04) | 1.11** (.04) |
| Latino | 0.20*** (.02) | 0.02 (.02) | 1.34*** (.03) | 0.86*** (.04) | 0.83*** (.04) | 1.28*** (.03) | 1.07 (.04) | 1.08 (.04) |
| Asian | − 0.17*** (.03) | − 0.04 (.03) | 0.61*** (.07) | 0.87 (.07) | 0.90 (.08) | 0.75*** (.07) | 0.85* (.07) | 0.89 (.08) |
| Gender | 0.18*** (.01) | 1.94*** (.03) | 1.77*** (.03) | 1.32*** (.03) | 1.06 (.03) | |||
| Age < 18 | − 0.08*** (.02) | 0.57*** (.05) | 0.58*** (.05) | 1.36*** (.05) | 1.68*** (.05) | |||
| Age 18—24 | − 0.01 (.01) | 0.90** (.03) | 0.92* (.03) | 1.03 (.03) | 1.06 (.03) | |||
| Age 35 + | − 0.06*** (.01) | 0.75*** (.03) | 0.77*** (.03) | 0.94* (.03) | 1.01 (.03) | |||
| Instant Offense | ||||||||
| Class B Drugs | 0.22*** (.02) | 1.28*** (.05) | 1.02 (.05) | 2.12*** (.04) | 1.89*** (.04) | |||
| Class D Violent Assault | 0.21*** (.02) | 1.96*** (.05) | 1.73*** (.05) | 0.92 (.05) | 0.70*** (.05) | |||
| Class D Forgery | 0.00 (.02) | 0.90 (.06) | 0.87* (.06) | 1.18** (.05) | 1.27*** (.06) | |||
| Class C Violent Robbery | 0.61*** (.02) | 3.66*** (.06) | 2.21*** (.07) | 1.68*** (.05) | 0.93 (.06) | |||
| Class D Grand Larceny | 0.27*** (.02) | 1.04 (.06) | 0.78*** (.06) | 1.81*** (.06) | 1.65*** (.06) | |||
| Class D Burglary | 0.22*** (.03) | 1.77*** (.08) | 1.52***(.08) | 1.99*** (.06) | 1.65*** (.06) | |||
| Class D Drugs | 0.03 (.03) | 0.90 (.07) | 0.86*(.08) | 1.26*** (.06) | 1.32*** (.07) | |||
| Class D Weapons | − 0.05* (.03) | 0.63*** (.07) | 0.65*** (.07) | 0.63*** (.07) | 0.66*** (.07) | |||
| Class C Violent Burglary | 0.73*** (.03) | 3.60*** (.09) | 1.87*** (.09) | 3.07*** (.07) | 1.69*** (.07) | |||
| Class E Contempt | 0.30*** (.03) | 3.13*** (.09) | 2.64*** (.09) | 1.02 (.08) | 0.75*** (.08) | |||
| Class B Violent Robbery | 1.15*** (.03) | 13.16*** (.13) | 4.75*** (.13) | 3.12*** (.07) | 1.09 (.08) | |||
| Class E Theft | 0.02 (.03) | 1.30** (.09) | 1.30** (.09) | 0.72*** (.08) | 0.65*** (.09) | |||
| Class D Robbery | 0.22*** (.03) | 1.81*** (.09) | 1.57*** (.10) | 1.10 (.08) | 0.85* (.08) | |||
| Other Charges | 0.53*** (.02) | 2.74*** (.04) | 1.81*** (.05) | 2.08*** (.04) | 1.31*** (.04) | |||
| Criminal History | ||||||||
| Felony Convictions—1 | 0.32*** (.01) | 2.21*** (.05) | 1.67*** (.05) | 1.22*** (.04) | 0.87*** (.04) | |||
| Felony Convictions—2 | 0.41*** (.02) | 2.28*** (.06) | 1.55*** (.07) | 1.29*** (.04) | 0.87** (.05) | |||
| Felony Convictions—3 | 0.41*** (.02) | 2.22*** (.08) | 1.51*** (.08) | 1.33*** (.05) | 0.89* (.06) | |||
| Felony Convictions—4 | 0.47*** (.03) | 2.67*** (.10) | 1.73*** (.10) | 1.52*** (.06) | 0.97 (.06) | |||
| Felony Convictions—5 + | 0.55*** (.02) | 2.76*** (.09) | 1.61*** (.10) | 1.71*** (.06) | 1.02 (.06) | |||
| Misdemeanor Convictions 1–2 | 0.16*** (.01) | 2.05*** (.04) | 1.88*** (.04) | 1.54*** (.03) | 1.28*** (.03) | |||
| Misdemeanor Convictions 3–4 | 0.16*** (.02) | 2.39*** (.05) | 2.16*** (.06) | 1.39*** (.04) | 1.12* (.05) | |||
| Misdemeanor Convictions 5–10 | 0.18*** (.02) | 3.16*** (.05) | 2.80*** (.06) | 1.49*** (.04) | 1.17*** (.04) | |||
| Misdemeanor Convictions 11–20 | 0.18*** (.02) | 4.56*** (.07) | 3.97*** (.07) | 1.45*** (.05) | 1.09 (.05) | |||
| Misdemeanor Convictions 21 + | 0.14*** (.02) | 5.62*** (.09) | 5.14*** (.09) | 1.32*** (.05) | 1.01 (.06) | |||
| Violent Convictions—1 | 0.07*** (.02) | 1.05 (.06) | 0.98 (.06) | 1.04 (.04) | 0.98 (.04) | |||
| Violent Convictions—2 + | 0.10*** (.02) | 1.05 (.09) | 0.96 (.09) | 0.92 (.05) | 0.84** (.06) | |||
| Bench Warrants—1 | 0.07*** (.01) | 1.61*** (.04) | 1.55*** (.04) | 1.08* (.03) | 0.96 (.03) | |||
| Bench Warrants—2 | 0.07*** (.02) | 1.67*** (.05) | 1.60*** (.05) | 1.02 (.04) | 0.91* (.04) | |||
| Bench Warrants—3 | 0.10*** (.02) | 1.82*** (.07) | 1.73*** (.08) | 0.94 (.05) | 0.82*** (.05) | |||
| Bench Warrants—4 | 0.10*** (.03) | 1.52*** (.09) | 1.40*** (.10) | 0.98 (.06) | 0.87* (.06) | |||
| Bench Warrants—5 + | 0.09*** (.02) | 1.69*** (.08) | 1.59*** (.08) | 0.86** (.05) | 0.75*** (.05) | |||
| Other Factors | ||||||||
| Pending Case | 0.13***(.01) | 1.69*** (.03) | 1.51*** (.03) | 1.10*** (.02) | 0.93** (.03) | |||
| Domestic Violence | − 0.16*** (.01) | 0.93(.04) | 1.10*(.04) | 0.43***(.04) | 0.43***(.04) | |||
| Parole Supervision | 0.27*** (.02) | 2.74*** (.08) | 2.13*** (.09) | 1.42*** (.04) | 1.10* (.05) | |||
| Crime Driver | 0.21*** (.01) | 1.42*** (.04) | 1.16*** (.04) | 1.27*** (.03) | 1.06 (.03) | |||
| ln ECAB | − 0.29*** (.01) | 0.68*** (.03) | 0.88*** (.03) | 0.60*** (.03) | 0.74*** (.03) | |||
| Defense Atty.—18B | 1.37*** (.06) | 1.55*** (.06) | 1.10 (.05) | 1.16** (.06) | ||||
| Defense Atty.—Legal Aid | 1.04(.05) | 1.20*** (.05) | 0.99 (.04) | 1.12* (.05) | ||||
| Defense Atty.—Other | 0.90* (.05) | 1.01 (.05) | 0.97 (.05) | 1.11* (.05) | ||||
| Prior Decisionmaking | ||||||||
| Bail Request (logged) | 2.89*** (.02) | 2.13*** (.02) | ||||||
| Pretrial Detention | 2.51*** (.03) | |||||||
| Adjusted R-square/Accuracy | .012 | .263 | .680 | .760 | .790 | .580 | .640 | .690 |
| − 2LL | − 27,009 | − 21,226 | − 19,053 | − 29,723 | − 27,452 | − 24,891 | ||
| N | 43,971 | 43,971 | 43,971 | 43,971 | 43,971 | 43,971 | 43,971 | 43,971 |