TABLE 1.

Mean posterior effect size estimates for relationships of free‐air temperature, topography, moisture, and vegetation variables with absolute daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures at different heights above and in Arctic tundra soil. Values were obtained from Bayesian linear mixed modeling and have been transformed to the respective units given for each variable. Blank cells indicate nonsignificant effects (i.e., 95% credible intervals overlapping with zero). Gray cells show variables not included as predictors for respective temperature responses

Variable	Unit	Canopy‐level temperature			Near‐surface temperature			Soil temperature (growing season)			Soil temperature (winter)
		Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max
Free‐air temp.	°C/°C	0.86	0.75	0.89	0.76	0.61	0.91	0.27	0.27	0.33	0.37	0.36	0.37
Elevation	°C/100 m	−0.12	−0.09	−0.21	−0.08	−0.12
Slope angle	°C/°	0.02	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.10
Solar radiation	°C/% of seasonal max.		0.02		0.03		0.07	0.06			−0.09	−0.09	−0.09
Landform	—									0.47
Soil moisture	°C/10% VWC		−0.09
Snow cover duration	°C/10 days										0.75	0.86	0.65
Rock cover	°C/10% cover	0.09	0.08			0.20					−0.40	−0.40	−0.39
Shrub cover	°C/10% cover					−0.07	0.23	−0.24		−0.45
Bryophyte cover	°C/10% cover				−0.12		−0.27	−0.35	−0.30	−0.42
Lichen cover	°C/10% cover									−0.35
Vegetation height	°C/cm taller vegetation	0.03	−0.05	0.17				−0.17	−0.15	−0.20