Table 4.
Example of two cases with few or several positive predictors from the final prediction model for non-success in neck disability at 12 months. For each of the cases, the predicted probability has been calculated based upon the presence (yes) or absence (no) of each predictor
| Patient 1, few positive predictors | Patient 2, several positive predictors | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard physical demands in work (vs computers/sitting still or light physical work) | No | Yes |
| High educational level (4 or more years of university) (vs high school or less than 4 years of university) | Yes | No |
| Pending litigation1 (vs none) | No | Yes |
| Previous neck surgery (vs not) | No | Yes |
| Duration of arm pain | ||
| < 3 months | Yes | No |
| 3–12 months | No | No |
| > 1 year | No | Yes |
| Baseline NDI2 score | ||
| Low (0–40) | No | No |
| Medium (41–60) | Yes | No |
| High (> 60) | No | Yes |
| Anxiety or depression3 | No | Yes |
| Probability | 0.13 [0.12 to 0.15] | 0.92 [0.91 to 0.94] |
1Pending medical claim/litigation against the Norwegian public welfare agency fund concerning disability pension or pending medical compensation claim/litigation against private insurance companies or the public Norwegian System of Compensation to Patients. 2Neck Disability Index, 0–100 (no-maximal disability). 3Based on scoring “moderate” to “extremely” anxious or depressed in the item in EQ-5D-3L questionnaire