TABLE 3.

Model selection for Cormack–Jolly–Seber models for estimation of apparent survival (ϕ) and probability of encounter (p) for adult Marbled Godwits and Willets at the Kitsim wetland complex near Brooks, Alberta, 1995–2001.

Model structure		Model parameters
ϕ	p	K	−2ln(L)	AICc	ΔAICc	w i  ≤
Marbled Godwits
con	con	2	327.4	331.5	0.0	0.258
sex	con	3	326.5	332.6	1.1	0.148
ponds	con	3	326.8	332.9	1.4	0.125
owls	con	3	327.0	333.1	1.6	0.116
sex	effort	4	325.6	333.7	2.2	0.085
sex + ponds	con	4	326.0	334.1	2.6	0.070
sex + owls	con	4	326.1	334.2	2.7	0.066
sex × owls	con	5	324.9	335.1	3.7	0.042
year	con	7	321.4	335.7	4.3	0.031
sex × ponds	con	5	325.6	335.8	4.3	0.029
sex + year	con	8	320.5	337.0	5.5	0.017
sex	year	8	321.1	337.6	6.1	0.012
sex × year	sex × year	22	305.5	352.7	21.2	0.000
Willets
sex	con	3	622.7	628.8	0.0	0.229
sex + ponds	con	4	621.6	629.6	0.8	0.150
sex	effort	4	621.6	629.7	0.9	0.149
con	con	2	626.4	630.4	1.6	0.103
sex + owls	con	4	622.7	630.8	2.0	0.083
ponds	con	3	625.0	631.1	2.3	0.073
sex × ponds	con	5	621.5	631.7	2.9	0.054
owls	con	3	626.4	632.4	3.6	0.037
sex	year	8	616.2	632.5	3.7	0.036
sex × owls	con	5	622.5	632.6	3.8	0.034
sex + year	con	8	616.3	632.6	3.8	0.034
year	con	7	619.8	634.1	5.3	0.016
sex × year	sex × year	22	598.2	644.6	15.8	0.000

Note: Alternative models included the effects of group (sex), time (year), annual covariates (ponds, owls), and intercept‐only constant model (con). Models that received little support are not shown (ΔAICc > 10 and w _i  < 0.005), except for the global starting model ϕ(sex × year), p(sex × year).